I wrote a complete replace earlier right this moment on the chance that Ukraine had taken a key metropolis close to Kharkiv, in Ukraine’s northeast. Appears (not directly) confirmed.
Whereas War Mapper is correctly nonetheless ready for official affirmation earlier than marking it on his maps, this exercise means quite a lot of beforehand pink and pink territory east of Kharkiv has been cleared:
Ukrainian forces pushing out from Chuhuiv southeast of Kharkiv can relaxation simpler about their northern left flank, however the effort has come at nice value. At this time, Ukraine admitted they took heavy losses within the liberation of Ruska Lozova, simply north of Kharkiv. And some days in the past, Ukraine received smashed making an attempt to take Kozacha Lopan up north, on the Russian border. Russia isn’t giving up this territory simply, and issues would possibly get even harder the nearer Ukraine will get to the worldwide border.
Within the Izyum axis, Russia made some incremental positive factors.
Lyman and Yampil are on the north facet of the Donets river, so Ukraine has room to fall again to the subsequent defensive layer, behind the river. So long as these cities are absolutely evacuated, Ukraine has loads of floor to spare. It’s a miracle they’ve lasted this lengthy on the Russian-separatist facet of the Donets. Dropping these cities isn’t catastrophic, it’s doubtless inevitable. It simply means Ukraine will get to maneuver behind the river, the place the defenses are even stronger. Land for blood.
By the way, that river is the explanation Izyum was so vital—it lastly gave Russia a river crossing, the one one to date on this axis.
All different fronts have been quiet, together with the remainder of the lengthy Donbas entrance. Individuals are already speaking a few “strategic pause to resupply and reinforce positions,” however I guess Russia is already operating out of steam. And whether or not Vladimir Putin calls a common mobilization or not shall be irrelevant.
Say he does—one thing I explored in a earlier replace—then what? Russian logistics are stretched to the breaking level, unable to maintain up with no matter they’ve in theater at this second. They’ve a conscript class of 130,000 presently in progress. Are they going to throw all of them into Ukraine without delay? Draft much more? How will they feed 130,000 (or extra) new troopers, after they can’t even handle what’s there now? What autos will they trip, when the whole lot arriving on the entrance lately appear to be “Scooby vans”? What dusty and rusty outdated Soviet-era tools will they dig up from pilfered reserve shares to equip them?
I believe is these new conscripts shall be despatched to present items to interchange fight losses, similar to Russia has completed all warfare. Ineffective items will turn out to be much more so, low morale will attain even deeper lows, and neglect about any notion of unit cohesion. Or worse, they’ll be utilized in a “Zerg rush,” as recommended by Ukrainian Presidential advisor Oleksiy Arestovych. If you happen to’ve performed Starcraft, you recognize what he’s speaking about.
It’s a pc sport, it has a nation—Zergs, insect. And since earthlings and one other folks have superior know-how, these simply throw in plenty.
So what I’m pondering, judging by the people who find themselves proper now reinforcing infantry items of the Russian military, they don’t seem to be specialists, not artillerists, not tank males. They’re recruiting lumpens, they’re given some outdated uniform, given boots from 1951, machine gun from 1947, and a helmet from 1943, and despatched into fight. Heroically despatched to battle […]
[But,] they don’t pose a fight energy, solely representing stay energy, nevertheless it’s not for lengthy both. 30% of those that entered Ukraine in two weeks, solely 30% are nonetheless alive. A component ran away, a component was destroyed. I feel that by mid-Might they will recruit 10,000 folks. And they’ll heroically go someplace, the query is the place? And this can look much like invasion by Chinese language volunteers within the Korean Battle.
Human waves. That’s the one approach Russian volunteers and conscripts can be utilized within the warfare. They are not going to be taught fight expertise. The unique invading power lacked them, and so they have been supposedly educated.
These poor souls shall be sacrificed en masse to Putin’s megalomania as Ukrainian artillery shreds them to items. It is a warfare crime, not on the Ukrainian folks, however on Russia’s youth itself.
