One factor that’s occurred very publicly over the just about three months since Russia rolled throughout the border into Ukraine is that NASA FIRMS information has develop into a widespread manner of monitoring exercise on the bottom. Generally it’s used to substantiate chatter already flowing via social media, or statements from official releases. Generally a giant blob of vivid purple spots in FIRMS provides everybody a heads up that exercise is underway in an space, or at a stage, that’s completely stunning. Generally FIRMS information has everybody speaking a few huge firefight when what they’re actually seeing is a medium-sized forest fireplace.
The ‘F’ in FIRMS is for Fireplace, after all. The complete title is the Fireplace Data for Useful resource Administration System. It makes use of two orbital devices—MODIS and VIIRS—which might be discovered on a number of satellites (MODIS is on Terra and Aqua satellites, VIIRS on NOAA-20). Neither of those devices was expressly designed to trace fight or monitor the influence of artillery. That they’ve turned out to be fairly darn good at it’s actually a boon to these making an attempt to suss out the reality in a fancy battlefield the place either side have many comprehensible causes for being lower than 100% clear.
So, when somebody tells you a narrative based mostly on FIRMS information, be cautious about how straightforward it’s to place a number of interpretations on what’s being displayed. In spite of everything, neither the MODIS spectroscope nor the VIIRS infrared imager is able to telling whether or not that artillery flash got here from Russian or Ukrainian fireplace. When these impacts set off an precise fireplace on the bottom, it may possibly make even a minor skirmish seem to be a significant battle. There are enormous caveats.
And now, right here’s a narrative based mostly largely on FIRMS information.
One of many nicer options of the FIRMS web site is that it’ll create a map that doesn’t simply present you the place sizzling spots have been over a delegated interval, it is going to color-code these spots to indicate that are more moderen. Yellow dots are over a day previously. Orange dots are barely newer. The darkish purple dots occurred inside six hours of the map being created, which on this case was at 10 AM ET on Tuesday.
On Monday, the primary tales that Ukrainian forces had crossed the Siverskyi Donets River started to flow into. Although there was no official affirmation from the Ukrainian Ministry of Protection, there was sufficient social media chatter—together with a number of pissed-off statements from Russians on Telegram—that this story was reported on Each day Kos, in addition to quite a lot of different websites. Nonetheless, many information websites haven’t run with this story, although the proof appears no less than pretty much as good as earlier occasions, such because the unlikely recapture of Staryi Saltiv itself, or the Ukrainian advance to the Russian border alongside the west facet of the river.
In keeping with the social media posts, a lot of which no less than declare to be reviews of troopers on the bottom, Ukraine managed to cross the river at two areas: At Staryi Saltiv, the place they apparently repaired the prevailing bridge nicely sufficient to deliver automobiles throughout, and east of Rubizhne, the place Ukraine did what has given Russia a lot hassle by setting up a pontoon bridge to switch the destroyed bridge.
What story does the FIRMS information inform? On Sunday, there appeared to be a cluster of artillery strikes in two areas—a kind of is on the japanese financial institution of the river across the village of Zarichne, about 2 kilometers north of the bridge crossing. The opposite seems to be … in the course of the river. Simply wanting on the FIRMS information, this is not sensible in any respect. How may there be fireplace within the river? And why?
That reply requires taking a look at a map that provides extra element, like this one made with Google Earth.
What the FIRMS map reveals as an space of water, is definitely a sequence of marshes and islands south of the bridge and on the north finish of the reservoir shaped by the dam down at Staryi Saltiv. What the FIRMS information is telling us right here could also be that Ukraine crossed the river on this space, setting up the pontoon bridge south of the bridge that Russia destroyed, and utilizing the low-lying land east of Rubizhne as a part of their route. If that’s true, then the new spots from 3-4 days in the past on this space are possible Russia trying to disrupt the Ukrainian effort.
What comes subsequent on the FIRMS information—these orange blocks—could also be an indicator of how nicely the relative crossing operations went. On the south, the motion strikes from Zarichne one other 2km north to an space between the city of Metalivka and the village of Bereznyky. This looks like an excellent indicator that Ukrainian forces have crossed at Staryi Saltiv, superior into Zarichne, and are persevering with to the north.
Nonetheless, there’s no matching assortment of strikes to indicate that Ukrainian forces are additionally continuing from the crossing at Rubizhne. As a substitute, there’s a tightly packed assortment of sizzling spots on the west facet of the river, between Rubizhne and Verkhnii Saltiv, each of that are considered underneath Ukrainian management. This hearth was nearly actually directed throughout the river by Russian forces and will imply that the northern crossing was much less profitable than the one at Staryi Saltiv. It’s extraordinarily unlikely that Russian forces administered something just like the defeat that Russia confronted in its three disastrous makes an attempt to cross the identical river additional south, however Ukraine may need solely been in a position to get restricted forces throughout. It may need misplaced any bridgehead at Rubizhne.
Or not. That is, in spite of everything, a stage of guesswork not far faraway from skillful examination of a calf’s entrails.
What’s clear is that the bombardment of the west financial institution is now not underway, whereas the artillery strikes on the east financial institution close to Metalivka proceed. This may additionally be an indicator. If Ukraine was in a position to get individuals throughout the river at each areas, the websites now underneath fireplace from the Staryi Saltiv crossing needs to be getting hit from either side. Or once more, perhaps not. As a result of it’s inconceivable to say what the orders to these forces is perhaps, or what targets they may now have. That is, in spite of everything, the identical “Kraken” forces who haven’t simply pushed again Russian troops from the world round Kharkiv, however continually turned up the place they weren’t anticipated.
The gap from Kharkiv to Staryi Saltiv, is sort of precisely the identical as the gap from Staryi Saltiv to the Russian highway and rail hub at Vovchansk. However to interrupt the move of provides, Ukraine doesn’t need to get to Vovchansk in any respect. They may push east at any level, slicing throughout the road miles south of the junction.
The concept that Ukraine efficiently introduced forces throughout the river and is advancing on Russian provide strains is engaging not simply because it holds out a chance to considerably derail Russian progress farther south, however as a result of it reveals Ukraine being profitable at simply the operation which has given Russia a lot issue. It’s pleasing in its symmetry. It’s romantic, within the extra adventurous model of that time period.
And it’s precisely as a result of that interpretation is so pleasing … that it needs to be taken with a complete shaker stuffed with salt. Nonetheless, right here’s taking a look at you, Vovchansk, with a lean and hungry look.
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Mark Sumner
On Monday, statements instructed that solely a portion of the troopers at Azovstal have been being evacuated, however now Evidently the siege may very well be over.
