The realm east of the Izyum salient continues to be the zone of hottest competition, and on Thursday the sample there hasn’t modified—Russia, having concentrated heavy forces within the space, is slowly grinding ahead, capturing extra villages, and transferring nearer to main targets just like the cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. There are heavy losses on each side and continued stories that Russia is pushing Battalion Tactical Teams (BTGs) ahead which can be far beneath full energy, however up to now the sheer numbers, and the punishment of Russian artillery, has been sufficient to maintain Russia on the offensive.
Within the final 24 hours, Russia has expanded management of the realm across the just lately captured city of Lyman. This consists of taking a number of outlying villages like Dibrova. It additionally locations Russian-occupied territory inside 10km of Slovyansk, with the city of Raihorodok subsequent up on the Russian agenda. Russian sources are offering loads of pictures meant to point out that Ukrainian forces left behind quite a lot of gear within the woods close to Dibrova.
However there’s one factor about Russia’s subsequent step on that highway to Slovyansk that bears nearer examination. One thing that explains why it gained’t be so simple as transferring to these villages round Lyman. Right here’s the realm round Raihorodok intimately.
If that twisty line in the course of the picture seems to be acquainted, that’s the by now well-known Silverskyi Donets River. The realm north of Raihorodok consists of not simply throughout the river itself, however on the opposite aspect of a marshy space of streams, meanders, oxbow lakes … every part not conducive to transferring heavy gear. These satellite tv for pc pictures have been taken within the winter, however proper now the perfect phrase for that entire space, on the finish of the wet season and with summer season approaching, is “swamp.”
However there’s extra occurring right here than simply getting throughout the bridge. See the little crimson Russian-occupied marker on the north aspect of the river? That’s the village of Staryi Karavan. It’s elevation is 73m (240 ft) above sea degree. The realm round Raihordok isn’t a lot greater … apart from that white space on the map simply above the freeway and the present bridge. These are the “Chalk Mountains.” They is probably not mountains in most individuals’s e book, however they do stand up about 130m (425 ft) above the encompassing terrain, giving them a commanding view and wonderful firing place when wanting down on the river valley beneath.
To get to Slovyansk, Russian forces nonetheless must cross the Donets. Their finest shot might be within the space to the suitable of that freeway into Raihorodok. However Russia nonetheless wants to scrub up about half a dozen Ukrainian-controlled villages on the north aspect of the river, discover or create a route by that swampy space to succeed in the river, then bridge the river—and they should do it with out a repeat of what occurred once they tried to cross close to Bilohorivka and misplaced the higher a part of three BTGs.
Don’t count on that final 10km to Slovyansk to come back rapidly.
Within the meantime, preventing continued on Thursday in Severodonetsk. Whereas pulling out remaining Ukrainian forces and reforming within the rather more simply defended place of Lysychansk continues to appear to be the wise, and perhaps inevitable, transfer, Ukrainian forces reported on Thursday morning that they’d really retaken some components of Severodonetsk. Nevertheless, nearly all of town stays below Russian management, and nobody must be shocked if Ukraine decides that the price of persevering with there’s too excessive, irrespective of how a lot symbolic worth it holds.
Over close to Popasna, Russia made one other run at retaking Komyshuvakha, which Ukraine took again from Russia final week. As soon as once more, Ukraine held the place. The identical is true of Ukrainian forces holding a pair of flanking villages close to Komyshuvakha. On the west aspect of Popasna, Russia claimed to have taken the village of Pylypchatyne on Tuesday, however on Thursday the placement is as soon as once more in dispute.
As all of that is happening, there’s motion down within the southern a part of Ukraine at areas I’ve largely been ignoring. Energetic preventing is happening at a collection of villages northwest of town of Donetsk. Over to the west, Russia appears to be sending a really massive stack of very previous gear towards town of Zaporizhzhia, and there’s motion at a number of factors alongside the road in between.
How badly have I ignored this space? Every single day, I have a tendency so as to add cities and villages to the map as they get talked about in fight stories. The identical factor occurs with the traces of management. I attempt to modify them as stories are available in, marking off areas of latest change, and setting Russia’s occupation roughly midway between identified factors of management, with changes for pure obstacles like rivers. That’s how the realm round Izyum ended up wanting because it does within the prime map. Fixed fidgeting.
And now, right here’s how the identical map at the moment seems to be on the south finish of this theater.
That’s some critical neglect. Kharkiv has gotten consideration. Kherson has gotten consideration. Izyum has gotten consideration. However the space between Mariupol and Zaporizhzhia has been fastidiously hidden from view, as a result of I haven’t touched it. So … that ends at this time.
Particularly, I’ve marked out the city of Hulyaipole. I’ve carried out so as a result of I just lately noticed a report of preventing within the south that included an interview with two girls who reside on this city. They’d a grievance that went past the bombs and shells that have been crushing their houses. That grievance was: Why was nobody was speaking about it? Popasna was getting consideration. Izyum was getting consideration. All over the place else that Russia was attacking was getting consideration. Why was nobody speaking concerning the struggling of Hulyaipole?
Girls, I do know you’ll by no means learn this. However later at this time, we’ll be taking a look at Hulyaipole.
