Analysis: Global rice supplies at risk as harsh weather hits top exporters

SINGAPORE/MUMBAI, Aug 5 (Reuters) – Opposed climate throughout high rice suppliers in Asia, together with the largest exporter India, is threatening to scale back the output of the world’s most essential meals staple and stoke meals inflation that’s already close to report highs.

Rice has bucked the pattern of rising meals costs amid bumper crops and huge inventories at exporters over the previous two years, whilst COVID-19, provide disruptions and extra just lately the Russia-Ukraine battle made different grains costlier.

However inclement climate in exporting nations in Asia, which accounts for about 90% of the world’s rice output, is more likely to change the value trajectory, merchants and analysts mentioned.

“There’s an upside potential for rice costs with the potential for manufacturing downgrades in key exporting nations,” mentioned Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist at Nationwide Australia Financial institution.

“A rise in rice costs would add to already main challenges for meals affordability in elements of the creating world,” Ziebell advised Reuters.

Patchy rains in India’s grain belt, a heatwave in China, floods in Bangladesh and high quality downgrades in Vietnam may curb yields in 4 of the world’s high 5 rice producers, farmers, merchants and analysts advised Reuters.

“Rice has remained accessible whilst general meals costs reached report ranges earlier this yr,” mentioned U.N.’s Meals and Agriculture Organisation economist, Shirley Mustafa.

“We are actually witnessing weather-related setbacks in some key rice producing nations, together with India, China and Bangladesh, which may lead to decrease output if circumstances do not enhance within the subsequent few weeks,” Mustafa added.

‘PRODUCTION DROP IS CERTAIN’

India’s high rice producing states of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh have recorded a monsoon rainfall deficit of as a lot as 45% up to now this season, information from the state-run climate division exhibits.

That has partially led to a 13% drop in rice planting this yr, which may lead to manufacturing falling by 10 million tonnes or round 8% from final yr, mentioned B.V. Krishna Rao, president of the All India Rice Exporters Affiliation.

The realm beneath rice cultivation is down additionally as a result of some farmers shifted to pulses and oilseeds, Rao mentioned.

India’s summer-sown rice accounts for greater than 85% of its annual manufacturing, which jumped to a report 129.66 million tonnes within the crop yr to June 2022.

“A manufacturing drop is definite, however the huge query is how the federal government will react,” a Mumbai-based seller with a world buying and selling agency mentioned.

Milled and paddy rice shares in India as of July 1 totalled 55 million tonnes, versus the goal of 13.54 million tonnes.

That has saved rice costs down prior to now yr along with India’s report 21.5 million tonnes cargo in 2021, which was greater than the entire shipped by the world’s subsequent 4 largest exporters – Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and the USA.

“However the authorities is hypersensitive about costs. A small rise may immediate it to impose export curbs,” the dealer mentioned.

In Vietnam, rains throughout harvest have broken grain high quality.

“By no means earlier than have I seen it rain that a lot throughout harvest. It is simply irregular,” mentioned Tran Cong Dang, a 50-year-old farmer primarily based within the Mekong Delta province of Bac Lieu.

“In simply ten days, the entire measured rain is considerably equal to the entire of earlier month,” mentioned Dang, who estimated a 70% output loss on his 2-hectare paddy area on account of floods.

IMPORTS, PRICES

China, the world’s largest rice client and importer, has suffered yield losses from excessive warmth in grain rising areas and is predicted to raise imports to a report 6 million tonnes in 2022/23, in accordance with the U.S. Division of Agriculture.

China imported 5.9 million tonnes a yr in the past.

The world’s third-biggest client, Bangladesh, can also be anticipated to import extra rice following flood-damage in its predominant producing areas, merchants mentioned.

The total extent of shortfalls in nations apart from India has but to be estimated by analysts or authorities businesses that always solely publish output information later within the yr.

However the impression of unfriendly crop climate can already be seen within the slight rise in export costs from India and Thailand this week.

“Rice costs are already near the underside and we see the market rising from present ranges,” mentioned a Singapore-based dealer at one of many world’s largest rice retailers.

“The demand is selecting up with consumers such because the Philippines and others in Africa seeking to guide cargoes.”

Reporting by Naveen Thukral in Singapore and Rajendra Jadhav in Mumbai; extra reporting by Phuong Nguyen in Hanoi and Enrico Dela Cruz in Manila; Modifying by Gavin Maguire and Himani Sarkar

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