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Is Biden Right About a Recession? The July Jobs Report Suggests Yes.

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August 6, 2022
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Is Biden Right About a Recession? The July Jobs Report Suggests Yes.
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The sturdy jobs report was welcome information for President Biden, who has insisted in latest weeks that america isn’t in recession, although it has suffered two consecutive quarters of financial contraction.

However the report additionally defied even the president’s personal optimistic expectations in regards to the state of the labor market — and appeared to contradict the administration’s principle of the place the economic system is headed.

Mr. Biden celebrated the report on Friday morning. “Right now, the unemployment charge matches the bottom it’s been in additional than 50 years: 3.5 p.c,” he mentioned in an announcement. “Extra persons are working than at any level in American historical past.”

He added: “There’s extra work to do, however right now’s jobs report reveals we’re making vital progress for working households.”

The president has mentioned for months that he expects job creation to sluggish quickly, together with wage and worth progress, because the economic system transitions to a extra steady state of slower progress and decrease inflation.

“If common month-to-month job creation shifts within the subsequent yr from present ranges of 500,000 to one thing nearer to 150,000,” Mr. Biden wrote in an opinion piece for The Wall Street Journal in Could, “will probably be an indication that we’re efficiently transferring into the subsequent section of restoration — as this type of job progress is in keeping with a low unemployment charge and a wholesome economic system.”

White Home officers prepped reporters this week for the chance that job progress was cooling, in keeping with Mr. Biden’s expectations. The expectations-busting job creation quantity appeared to shock them, once more.

However Mr. Biden will virtually actually cite the numbers as proof that the economic system is nowhere close to recession. He and his aides have repeatedly mentioned in latest weeks that the present tempo of job creation is out of step with the roles numbers in earlier recessions, and proof {that a} contraction in gross home product doesn’t imply the nation is mired in a downturn.

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