Over the course of sports activities historical past there are some excessive statistical outliers. From Wilt Chamberlain, who averaged 48.5 minutes a recreation within the 1961-62 season (there are solely 48 minutes in an N.B.A. recreation), to Wayne Gretzky, who had so many assists that he could be the N.H.L.’s profession factors chief even when he had by no means scored a purpose, sure stars have put information to date out of attain that discussing them can appear pointless.
Rickey Henderson, the well-traveled vagabond who incessantly discovered his method again to Oakland, was that method with stolen bases. And because the standard Twitter account Tremendous 70s Sports activities noted on Thursday, Henderson started Could 12, 1982 because the M.L.B. chief in steals — with 35.
It’s a quantity that seems extra absurd the longer you have a look at it. Final yr solely two gamers managed that many stolen bases all season. In 2019, solely 5 gamers received there. Henderson, who in 1982 was on his option to a file 130 steals in 172 makes an attempt, was averaging greater than a steal per recreation in mid-Could. It was a tempo so relentless that it throws off the curve for every other stolen base dialogue.
Should you can alter your base-stealing expectations again to the fashionable actuality, although, Julio Rodríguez of the Seattle Mariners is off to a powerful begin in his rookie season. He and the Mariners will open a collection towards the first-place Mets at Citi Discipline beginning Friday evening, and with a significant league-leading 10 steals in 11 makes an attempt, Rodríguez, 21, is on tempo to be the primary participant with 50 or extra in a season since Dee Unusual-Gordon had 60 in 2017.
Might Rodríguez be the way forward for baseball, as he boldly prompt earlier than this season? Completely. Might he be the torchbearer for Henderson and the sport’s different nice stolen base threats? Not if he retains up his latest sizzling streak on the plate.
Rodríguez’s transition to the majors was initially very tough. After a loss on April 29, he was hitting .211 with a .550 on-base plus slugging share. He had mitigated these poor outcomes a bit with defensive effort and by being aggressive on the basepaths: By 19 video games, he had a significant league-leading 9 stolen bases. Since then, his extremely regarded abilities on the plate have come round, with an .835 O.P.S. in 12 video games — however he has stolen just one extra base.
It’s far too quickly to inform how issues will play out for a younger participant like Rodríguez. However within the present setting, it’s not stunning for a participant who can hit, significantly one who can hit for energy like Rodríguez, to give attention to that somewhat than discovering methods to fabricate offense by means of stealing bases.
Within the Eighties, pitchers’ nightmares had been crammed with the picture of Tim Raines, Vince Coleman or Henderson taking an extended lead off first base. However lately, even the gamers with the mix of velocity and know-how to steal in big numbers have gone one other method. From Mike Trout’s bulking as much as give attention to his energy to Trea Turner’s attempting to guard his physique from put on and tear, the sport’s finest base stealers have walked away from what was a extremely marketable talent.
Total, groups are averaging 0.49 steals a recreation this season, which is a light uptick from final yr but additionally could be the fourth season in a row wherein the common is under 0.5. That’s down from a contemporary peak of 0.85 a recreation in 1987 — the period of Raines, Coleman and Henderson. Over the course of the season, that seemingly small fraction can add up. Final season the Kansas Metropolis Royals led M.L.B. with 124 steals; in 1987, the common staff stole 138.
Main League Baseball has recognized this as an issue. A participant taking off for second, sending a jolt by means of the group, makes for a extra compelling recreation than just a few solo house runs and a dozen strikeouts. So M.L.B., because it experiments on the minor league degree, has prioritized discovering methods to encourage operating like limiting the variety of occasions a pitcher can step off the rubber in a single league and requiring pitchers to step off the rubber earlier than trying a pickoff in one other.
Regardless of that, it might probably generally really feel as if there’ll by no means be one other José Reyes, not to mention one other Henderson. As we wait to see if M.L.B.’s initiatives could make a dent, it’s value remembering that there’s an ebb and circulate to statistics in baseball and that we aren’t truly on the nadir of stolen bases.
There have been solely six seasons wherein the main league common was under 0.3 steals a recreation, and all six got here between 1949 and 1956. In 1957, the Washington Senators set a very doubtful file, stealing solely 13 bases as a staff over the course of 154 video games. Making issues worse, they had been caught attempting to steal 38 occasions.
A yr later, Henderson was born in Chicago and would go on to steal a file 1,406 bases.
And it was hardly simply Henderson. The resurgence of stolen bases after that low level within the Nineteen Fifties occurred surprisingly rapidly. In 1958, Willie Mays of the San Francisco Giants led the majors with solely 31 steals. By 1962, Maury Wills of the Los Angeles Dodgers was altering the sport — and setting a brand new fashionable file — with 104.
Steals grew to become so frequent that in 1976, 10 gamers had 50 or extra in the identical season, and the common variety of steals topped 0.7 a recreation — a determine it will attain in 22 consecutive seasons.
In that spirit, a return to stealing bases could appear unlikely proper now, however all it will presumably take is a participant eager to do it and a staff not telling him to cease. The resurgence may blossom from there.
Ought to that occur, Henderson won’t must lose sleep about his information.
If Rodríguez, or anybody else, will get to 50 in a season, they might repeat that feat for a span of 28 consecutive seasons and nonetheless be six wanting tying Henderson. It’s not unimaginable, after all, however just like the feats of Chamberlain and Gretzky, it’s a file so outlandish that it’s best to not spend an excessive amount of time pondering whether or not anybody may threaten it.
