Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy felt like Groundhog Day, answering the identical questions “what do you want?” from world leaders time and time once more. Writing about this battle feels the identical approach.
The primary 5 weeks of the battle, we didn’t simply speak about Russia’s logistical struggles, however of Ukraine’s skills to capitulate on these struggles for optimum chaos and destruction. Right here’s a map from mid-March, earlier than Russian forces had been pushed out of northern Ukraine.
Unable to seize main Ukrainian cities alongside these routes, Russia tried to “comprise” them whereas the spearhead of their invasion drive bypassed them of their mad scramble towards Kyiv. Even little Hlukhiv, inhabitants 32,000, on the Russian border itself, remained in Ukrainian palms. Mighty Russia couldn’t conquer a easy small city on a serious freeway towards Kyiv, after Ukrainian defenders killed 15 Russian tanks with Javelins within the opening hours of the battle.
On March 9, Russia was nonetheless struggling within the Hlukhiv area. On the time, the Institute for the Examine of Struggle concluded, “This continued combating doubtless signifies that the Russians are struggling to consolidate management over this prolonged line of communication and that Ukrainian forces are actively contesting it. That phenomenon might partially clarify the relative paucity of Russian exercise reported in Kyiv’s japanese outskirts prior to now 24 hours.”
By leaving Ukrainian strongholds behind, these provide traces had been simple pickings for territorial protection, particular forces, and different Ukrainian armed models. Russia’s spearhead components floor to a halt, missing gas, ammunition, meals, and different requirements of life. A lot of Ukraine’s armor right this moment is a legacy of this folly—Russians merely strolling away from their tools after they’d run out of gas, or they’d get caught within the mud with no means to tug them out.
So Russia embarrassingly conceded Season One to Ukraine, surrendered their northern effort, and set about to “reset” their battle focusing the majority of their energies on the japanese Donbas entrance. And the end result? We’re again to lengthy, unsecured provide traces, relentlessly harassed by Ukrainian forces.
Two gas tankers and a self-propelled artillery gun? That is the battle jackpot! Russia’s military stalls with out gas, prefer it did round Kyiv, and removes Russia’s artillery from the image, and there’s little or no left. I wasn’t capable of finding a geolocation of this ambush, however we are able to guess:
As soon as once more, Russia is unable to take a serious metropolis alongside their traces of provide—Kharkiv. Kupiansk is Russia’s logistical hub within the area—two main rail traces and a number of other highways from Russia converge in town, in addition to a 3rd rail line (and extra roads) from the Russian-occupied east. Troops and equipments have to maneuver all the way down to Izyum on roads which can be simply accessible each to Ukrainian floor forces on the western flank, and much more importantly, its artillery.
As lengthy Russian forces are inside Ukrainian artillery vary, they’re in extreme hazard. Take a look at these three tanks making an attempt to cover within the courtyard of a civilian house complicated:
There’s a purpose that Ukraine was screaming for extra artillery. And, there’s a purpose why NATO has determined that yeah, good thought.
This entire thread on artillery is nice, by Mark Hertling, former commander of U.S. Military Europe. That is the nut:
So we’re again to Russia’s uncovered provide traces, and Ukraine feasting on them—however now with added artillery firepower. However that’s not all! There’s extra deja vu. Keep in mind how Russia unfold out its assaults over 4 axes and over a dozen avenues of assault? Properly, uh, guess what.
As an alternative of specializing in a single huge assault, punching by defensive traces, dashing reinforcements by the breach, grabbing floor, reducing off remaining defensive traces, and forcing a determined, chaotic Ukrainian response …. we’re again to the identical under-supported broad assaults which were the hallmark of this whole battle. Within the Izyum salient alone, Russia has tried assaults in 5 completely different instructions over the previous couple of days:
Russia isn’t consolidating its forces for an enormous offensive, it’s merely feeding them into the wooden chipper, hoping to erode Ukrainian defensive traces by wave after wave of seemingly random and uncoordinated assaults. Tactically, Russia has made some beneficial properties—like taking the city of Lozova on the japanese financial institution of the Oskil river, however general, ISW assessed that “[t]he navy state of affairs didn’t considerably change within the final 24 hours, and Russian forces are persevering with to conduct localized assaults whereas feeding in extra reinforcements as a substitute of pausing to arrange for a wider offensive.” As we’ve seen, every one in all these probes saps a bit of extra of Russia’s energy, regardless in the event that they handle to take a small city right here or there. Ukraine has loads of land to cede because it buys time for reinforcements to reach. The price is what issues, and Russia continues to pay a steep worth.
To the north, Ukraine continued to purge Russians round Kharkiv, taking the city of Udy on the Russian border, and making a transfer on Kazachya Lopan (which Russia claims to have repelled). Look what’s simply northeast of these two cities:
Belgorod, Russia, is simply round 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the Ukrainian border, placing it in vary of extended-range artillery, MLRS rockets, and short-run air assault (as we’ve already seen). Russia must be freaking out, which ought to drive it to redeploy forces within the space, “fixing” them in place, unable to affix the struggle down in Donbas.
And down south, close to Kherson, Ukraine has been shelling the f’ out of Russian forces amidst unconfirmed rumors of significant Russian losses, however no territory has modified palms. Keep in mind, the terrain is open and unprotected, and Russia can lay down a wall of artillery to fend off Ukrainian advances. Ukrainian basic employees can have some onerous choices about the place to ship these 96 M777 towed howitzers they’re getting from the USA and Canada, in addition to the self-propelled weapons they’re getting from France and the Dutch. A lot will doubtless rely on whether or not Russia can put severe stress on the Donbas entrance. As a result of if issues stay static’ish, I’d ship an enormous chunk of that artillery down south and cleanse the Kherson area of Russians, earlier than sweeping east, by Mariupol, after which as much as Donbas.
Let’s test on Izyum climate:
A dry week, however the wet season isn’t over.
