Late Saturday Odds, Best Bets, And Epicenter’s “Sure” Shot At The Win

If a horse race — repeat, a horse race — might be stated to replicate something like what we name “standard knowledge,” then the $1.5-million 2022 Preakness is that race, and the low odds on prime favourite Epicenter is the numerical equal of the considering. Thoughts you, that is two blisteringly brief weeks after the harder, longer and altogether revolutionary 2022 Kentucky Derby, by which precisely zero “standard knowledge” could possibly be discovered because the at this time’s Preakness favourite Epicenter acquired blazed within the final furlong by the 80-1 longshot phenom Wealthy Strike.

Therefore at this time’s race-day query takes a barely totally different tack: Is the 147th operating of the Preakness actually Epicenter’s to lose? Wealthy Strike is twiddling his thumbs till the Belmont, Derby present horse Zandon’s connections have made different issues for him to do that afternoon, so the race does stand an honest probability of mirroring the bookmakers’ buzzy hivemind.

However if you happen to ask the the Oaks-victor Secret Oath’s connections, particularly the filly’s 86-year-old Corridor of Fame legend D. Wayne Lukas, who has gained the Preakness six occasions, the 147th operating can be something however the odds favourite’s cake stroll. The super-crusty old-school onerous man, who nonetheless mounts as much as monitor his secure’s performances at 7 each morning, informed the Day by day Racing Kind final week:

“Filly, colt, authorities mule, I don’t care. I’m right here to win the factor.”

That’s the spirit. We’ll convey the Bluegrass Clever Man ™ in to evaluate Mr. Lukas and the opposite favorites and their trainers in a bit, however first, a refresher on the chances. NOTE: We are going to replace these with dwell odds on this area after Pimlico opens this morning, and can replace till put up time.

Put up place, horse, coach, jockey, (morning line), dwell odds

1. Simplification, Antonio Sano, John Velazquez, (6-1), 8-1

2. Inventive Minister, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., (10-1), 10-1

3. Fenwick, Kevin McKathan, Florent Geroux , (50-1), 12-1

4. Secret Oath, D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Saez, (9-2), 9-2

5. Early Voting, Chad Brown, Jose Ortiz, (7-2), 5-1

6. Completely happy Jack, Doug O’Neill, Tyler Gaffalione, (30-1), 11-1

7. Armagnac, Tim Yakteen, Irad Oritz Jr., (12-1), 17-1

8. Epicenter, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, (6-5), 7-5

9. Skippylongstocking, Saffie Joseph Jr., Junior Alvarado, (20-1), 11-1

(Supply: TVG, 6:59 p.m., Might 21, 2022)

With no additional ado, right here’s the Bluegrass Clever Man ™ together with his attribute horse sense, on the prospects and one of the best bets for the 2022 Preakness.

Let’s drill down on D. Wayne and Secret Oath. We hit her early within the week, however the chatter is so loud that you simply’d nonetheless suppose they had been first.

Bluegrass Clever Man ™: Obtained to love her. Obtained to love D. Wayne much more. Clearly, he’s eighty-six and counting, and his barn’s had its ups and downs recently, however he’s gained the race a half-dozen occasions. That is a gigantic variety of Preakness wins. So, first, he’s not doing this for his self-importance, he doesn’t want it, he’s gained all the things already. Race takes an excessive amount of out of you, your athlete and your workforce. D. Wayne’s doing it as a result of he thinks he’s acquired a shot. I believe he does too, however now, to the horse. She ran nice within the Oaks, however she carries some questions, the principle considered one of which is, if you happen to take a look at the Oaks when it comes to who she ran towards and beat, there simply is, or was, nothing within the Oaks of Epicenter caliber. Level of truth, there’s additionally no horse in her profession who she beat that’s of that high quality. There simply isn’t, okay? So, she’s gonna hafta come up a notch or three at this time to take this race. Given the sector, use her in a trifecta or an exacta? Dang proper. Be dumb to not.

However what does she really must do? This afternoon. To take the race.

Bluegrass Clever Man ™: Secret Oath must get her regular place in the course of the sector, hopefully within the clear so she doesn’t get caught down on the rail and have colts laying on her and maybe intimidating her. That stated, I don’t suppose they’ll journey to cease the filly, and I do suppose she’s legit. She’s gonna want loads of tempo in entrance of her, let the race crumble after which come along with her run. It’s been performed earlier than. Don’t overlook that the filly Swiss Skydiver gained the Preakness in 2020.

Let’s say you’re a coach and also you wish to run down Epicenter. What are his weaknesses that you simply now, proper now, prepare to use.

Bluegrass Clever Man ™: He’s gonna wish to lay again a bit of, which isn’t precisely a weak point, extra simply his type. However you may exploit that and easily work to be in a greater place. If he will get any type of tempo in entrance of him he’ll wish to transfer with it and also you merely have to maneuver faster than he does and last more. Typically, a proper good execution of techniques, moderately than say outright pace or endurance, can convey you a win. Partly you depend on a extremely good jockey for that, and the problem for Chad Brown, who’s acquired Early Voting, or Tim Yakteen with Armagnac, and even Antonio Sano with Simplification is that Steve Asmussen has Joel Rosario up on Epicenter. And he’s good.

Not that the others aren’t.

Bluegrass Clever Man ™: Actually true. Irad Ortiz, who’s on Armagnac, is good, and may make quite a bit occur with Armagnac, who’s kinda languishing in the course of the pack, odds-wise. However the different good jocks are unfold all by means of this race. Ortiz is on Early Voting, and he could make it occur. Saez has already confirmed his nice connection to Secret Oath within the Oaks, and if anyone might help Secret Oath take that massive step up that she must take, Saez can.

So, jockey’s race?

Bluegrass Clever Man ™: Each race is a jockey’s race, however you’re proper, this one particularly so. It’s in regards to the means to make cut up second choices based mostly on what you understand about your horse. Take Irad. We could not know an entire lot about Armagnac as a result of he hasn’t performed a lot for us to see, however Irad is able to enhancing him. At put up time his odds could learn like he’s fifth favourite or no matter, however with Irad up, he’s gonna run like he’s the second-favorite. Not saying this Preakness is unquestionably gonna play out that approach, however to the extent that this Preakness is a jockey’s race, that’s the tactic of it being so. And precisely that’s what you’re searching for whenever you wager a jockey. Or rent one to journey for you.

Let’s transfer to Epicenter one final time. Actually and really his race to lose?

Bluegrass Clever Man ™: It’s gonna take a particular effort from anyone on this subject to beat Epicenter. He’ll probably be midpack as soon as once more after which make his run. I don’t have many questions on him. Taking Wealthy Strike out of the equation, if you happen to take a look at the race he ran within the Derby, what’s to not like? He was about to win it. There are two faculties of thought. First is, if there’s nothing to ask him about that race, there’s nothing to ask — he’s gonna do the identical factor right here, however with much less competitors. The second faculty is, Wealthy Strike blazing by him places his win in query. I occur to have cherished the race he ran within the Derby and, with Wealthy Strike gone, I really like him right here. Steve Asmussen is not going to run if he doesn’t suppose he can win. The horse appeared to return out of the Derby in fine condition with good power.

Let’s transfer to Mr. Brown, Mr. Ortiz, and Early Voting.

Bluegrass Clever Man ™: Quick reply? Deeply legit, probably enhancing, however calmly raced. He almost beat Mo Donegal in his final begin. We noticed Mo Donegal run a stable fifth in Derby. Early Voting’s quite a bit like Zandon, identical barn. Early Voting’s a son of Gun Runner and the colts out of Gun Runner are loopy scorching. Mockingly, Gun Runner was skilled by Asmussen and owned by Winchell. They’ve a had a ton of success with that sire, which means Echo Zulu and others. If Early Voting beats them this afternoon, that might a tricky beat for Epicenter’s connections.

Race day’s when the cash meets the street, so to talk. How are you enjoying it?

Bluegrass Clever Man ™: Humorous kinda Preakness with the expertise bunched. That stated, you may’t keep away from Epicenter. I imply you may definitely ignore him on the home windows as you want, however you in all probability shouldn’t. So, put him on prime, field like mad beneath him, and pray for some longshots to position and present.