No, media, it’s not a ‘strategic pause’ anymore, Russia is just stuck

This map exhibits us the positive aspects by either side within the final seven days. Purple are Russian positive aspects, blue are Ukrainian positive aspects. 

If you happen to’re questioning, yeah, that’s just about nothing. Russia consolidated some territory northwest of Kyiv, whereas Ukraine pushed Russia out of western Kyiv suburbs. There have been offensives reported there previous couple of days, and appears like they did good work—essential as a result of it pushes Russia exterior of artillery vary of central Kyiv. 

Russia gained a smattering of cities within the northeastern Kharkiv/Sumi axis, in addition to the Donbas japanese axes. Down south, Russia occupied some roads on the best way as much as Kryvyi Rih, however straight west of it, misplaced all that floor round Mykolayiv as Ukraine’s counter-offensive pushes towards Kherson. 

The highest three axes could also be fiercely contested, however not a lot territory has modified fingers. (Curiously, a Ukrainian hospital within the space stated they have been getting far fewer casualties from Kharkiv, as extra of the combating had shifted to the japanese Donbas area.) The southern axis, nevertheless, is rather more dynamic. The arrow on the top-left nook of the map is the place Russian forces have been three days in the past. They’ve now been pushed down to simply 20 kilometers or so from Kherson. I questioned yesterday how Russia would react, and now we have now some clues.

Their southern axis, already under-resourced, was cut up into three prongs. There’s the hassle to get to Odesa on the decrease left of this map, which required both going by way of Mykolaiv, or discovering one other crossing of the Southern Bug river additional north (the place they obtained spanked). The center prong headed as much as Kyrvyi Rih, by way of tons of of miles of hostile territory swarming with territorial protection forces, to try to take a metropolis of 634,000. And a prong heading east to help within the siege of Mariupol. So what does Russia do? Right here’s that clue: 

The Ukrainian spelling of that city is Snihurivka, and it’s on the highway from Kherson as much as Kryvyi Rih. If it’s true that it was speeding again to Kherson, it means that Russia might have given up on that nonsensical center prong and is getting its artillery (and sure different assets) again south to defend Kherson. And you’ll definitely see why it’s so essential. 

Liberating Kherson would supply Ukraine a propaganda victory if immeasurable value. The press remains to be afraid to query whether or not Russia is dropping. That’s why we see headline after headline about Russia “pausing” and “resupplying” and “regrouping” and “reinforcing” and the like, as a substitute of the extra correct “caught within the mud.” Shedding its greatest prize, Russia’s dire straits can be tougher to cover. In the meantime, the Ukrainian folks would see tangible proof that the tide of the struggle was turning. Now check out the map once more:

There are two important highways developing from Russian-occupied Crimea. Strategically, liberate Kherson and also you strand these Russian forces reaching for Kryvyi Rih and safe that southern method towards Odesa and as much as Kyiv. Handle a push towards Melitopol, and Russia’s troops within the southeast are in actual hassle. Positive, they will nonetheless be provided by way of Donbas within the east, however Russian logistic strains are already fragile sufficient. The very last thing Russia wants is to interrupt off models besieging Mariupol to reinforce their western flank.

We now know that the troops marching on Kherson got here from Odesa. The town is safe, and a possible 1,500 Russian marines hanging out offshore isn’t sufficient to essentially threaten a metropolis of over 1 million. There are numerous related cities out west which are immediately secure given Russia’s woes within the east, and their defenders can now be dedicated to the struggle. What number of? No clue. Ukraine is definitely not saying. However it’s no coincidence that a lot video the final two days has been of Ukrainian artillery barrages, versus the infantry ambushes that dominated the primary two weeks. (For instance here, here, here, and my write up right here.) The West (capital “W”) hasn’t introduced any artillery shipments to Ukraine. That is all native stuff, lastly deployed in battle. 

The opposite issue at play—if Ukraine retakes Kherson and Melitopol, we’re virtually again to the pre-war borders, and Russia is perhaps focused on suing for peace, taking Donbas and Crimea for themselves as a comfort prize, one thing for Vladimir Putin to promote to his residence crowd as some type of superb victory (even when it simply will get us again to the pre-war established order). Ukraine has rejected any peace phrases that surrenders any of their territory. However Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy should weigh any such severe proposal with the rising civilian demise toll in his nation. I definitely don’t finish him that call.