This previous Monday, an area Telegram account gave us the primary inkling one thing was occurring close to Kharkiv, in Ukraine’s northeast. The account claimed that Ukraine had pushed Russians out of Staryi Saltiv, nicely east of the final identified Ukrainian positions round Kharkiv (in addition to complained that withdrawing Russians had run over his aviary). It’s as if Ukraine had leap-frogged an entire string of villages en path to the important thing metropolis on the Donets. At present, we lastly bought affirmation from Ukraine Normal Workers that they’d, certainly, taken all of the cities between Kharkiv and Staryi Saltiv.
Ukraine Normal Workers’s territorial claims have all the time been extraordinarily conservative, normally lagging early experiences by days. On this case, 4 to 5 days. They don’t simply need to take the city, they need to be certain they will maintain it. Maybe Russia doesn’t even know what’s occurring, given the poor state of their communications tools and techniques. Ready additionally retains Russia’s common workers guessing.
Ukraine can also be gaining floor west of Izyum, the territory Russia gained by pushing within the precise reverse course from their important goal—the cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk to Izyum’s southeast.
Russia’s Izyum salient has been frozen since final … Friday or so, a few week, regardless of being probably the most closely bolstered axis of the whole warfare with round 22 battalion tactical teams (BTG).
Why has Russia stopped advancing, and is now dropping floor, in its most closely bolstered a part of Ukraine? As a result of, right here we go once more, they will’t handle lengthy provide strains. Look how lengthy the Izyum provide strains are:
Immediately north of Izyum, that total stretch of main freeway is in vary of Ukrainian artillery, and identical to they did round Sumy earlier within the warfare, Ukraine has feasted on Russian tools.
In the meantime, see all that white on the map above? That’s territory recaptured by Ukraine in current days. Which means even extra of that offer line is uncovered to oblique Ukrainian artillery fireplace, and so is the city of Volchansk, on the Russian border—the first street and rail provide line from the important thing Russian metropolis of Belgorod.
Certainly, the collapse of Russian strains round Kharkiv has change into so dire that Russia’s border is in danger, with Belgorod inside vary of Ukrainian artillery. Russia seemingly has no alternative however to strengthen, however … from the place?
Not Izyum, that’s for positive. Russia is getting spanked there.
Within the Severodonetsk course, Russia picked up one village and crept ever nearer to that metropolis. Their drawback is that Russia continues to be preventing for territory on the north aspect of the Donets river. Ukraine has loads of room to retreat tactically, buying and selling territory for blood till they hit the river. And for all its troubles, Russia is then caught on the mistaken aspect of the river, the place Ukraine’s defenses are even stronger. (I wrote in regards to the significance of rivers for Ukraine’s protection in late March.)
In different phrases, Ukraine isn’t even at its strongest defensive place but in that nook of the entrance strains. That’s why Izyum was so essential—it’s the primary and solely place the place Russia managed to cross the Donets, thus threatening Ukraine’s rear.
There’s nothing wherever close to Izyum or Severodonetsk to ship to the border close to Kharkiv. Nor Kherson down south, additionally below stress from Ukrainian counter-offensives. The troops pulled out of Mariupol are going to the Donetsk course, simply north of Mariupol, the place Russian troops are additionally caught. Russia has actually made a large number of issues!
From the very starting, Russia had too few troops for such a giant nation. It diluted these troops throughout too many axes of assault. It pulled out of the Kyiv space after a bloody debacle, however Russia is nonetheless unfold too skinny, and assaults at random, with out consideration of any broader strategic objective like that push west of Izyum. These assaults are the common drip-drip-drip, proving each day that Russia merely can’t open the spigot and assault en masse. It by no means has, and seemingly by no means will.
Ukraine has performed it good, enjoying rope-a-dope with Russia, attriting its forces, pinning them down, and then counter-attacking judiciously, by no means over-committing, however probing weaknesses in Russia’s strains. It’s no mistake that Ukraine is counterattacking within the two areas (Kharkiv and Kherson) which have the fewest variety of dedicated Russian forces.
Ukraine continues to be not prepared for a real massed counteroffensive—Russia’s benefit in artillery and air assist make that too dangerous. However the steadiness shifts slowly towards Ukraine each single day, with each tank and artillery gun destroyed, with each warplane and helicopter shot down, and with each Russian and proxy soldier taken off the sector.
