Post Positions, Morning Line Odds, And The Top-Favorite Switcheroo Of Zandon Over Epicenter

Only a few pre-race occasions in racing are extra fraught, humorous or extra hotly-awaited by a super-jittery crowd of householders, trainers, pundits and jockeys than the put up place draw at Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby. Given the Derby’s famously-crowded fields of twenty, and the three-year-olds’ rising working kinds and (low) ranges of maturity, it’s doable for the tablet pull to place each horse within the gate in what their two-legged managers would dub a “unsuitable” slot. The Could 2 draw for the 2022 Kentucky Derby on Could 7 lived as much as the billing. There was a definite murmur within the room as Epicenter drew the three gap, strategy to the within, and arguably six to eight put up positions additional in than his homeowners, coach or jockey would have favored.

However the huge shock — to Epicenter’s connections and to many dozens of the nation’s greatest racing pundits on the observe and strewn throughout the nation — was delivered by no much less a determine than Churchill’s oddsmaker Mike Battaglia, who has normal the morning line for a document forty-eight runnings of the race. Mr. Battaglia delivered an excellent, tight, up-to-the minute switcheroo: crowning Zandon at a flat 3-1 within the morning line, thereby slipping the “long-presumed” favourite Epicenter down only a hair to second-favorite standing, at 7-2.

It was an eensy-weensy mathematical distinction, that one-half of a degree, and one prone to be very hard-fought on the seesaw as soon as the cash begins to speak because the Churchill home windows open on Could 6. However it was a monumental name, reportedly based mostly on the previous couple of weeks of Zandon’s coaching, which has been intently studied, and it’s a name that can echo all through Derby week. Mr. Battaglia is a nice and discerning oddsmaker, however in these Derby calls he’s relatively a Sphinx within the sense that it’s as much as us to learn into the numbers what he was considering as he cooked ‘em up. The brand new high fave Zandon drew put up place quantity 10, proper in the midst of Churchill’s new, extra capacious 20-horse gate, a stall with which his staff was reportedly very pleased.

However earlier than we get into parsing the sphere in view of their positions, herewith, a full listing of put up positions and their Mr.-Mike-Battaglia morning line assessments.

(Publish Place, Horse, Coach, Jockey, Morning Line)

1. Mo Donegal, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 10-1

2. Glad Jack, Doug O’Neill, Rafael Bejarano, 30-1

3. Epicenter, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, 7-2

4. Summer season Is Tomorrow, Bhupat Seemar, Mickael Barzalona, 30-1

5. Smile Glad, Kenny McPeek, Corey Lanerie, 20-1

6. Messier, Tim Yakteen, John Velazquez, 8-1

7. Crown Pleasure, Koichi Shintani, Christophe Lemaire, 20-1

8. Cost It, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 20-1

9. Tiz the Bomb, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 30-1

10. Zandon, Chad Brown, Flavien Prat, 3-1

11. Pioneer of Medina, Todd Pletcher, Joe Bravo, 30-1

12. Taiba, Tim Yakteen, Mike Smith, 12-1

13. Simplification, Antonio Sano, Jose Ortiz, 20-1

14. Barber Street, John Ortiz, Reylu Gutierrez, 30-1

15. White Abarrio, Saffie Joseph Jr., Tyler Gaffalione, 10-1

16. Cyberknife, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 20-1

17. Traditional Causeway, Brian Lynch, Julien Leparoux, 30-1

18. Tawny Port, Brad Cox, Ricardo Santana Jr., 30-1

19. Zozos, Brad Cox, Manny Franco, 20-1

20. Ethereal Street, D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Contreras, 30-1

(Supply: Churchill Downs, Could 2, 2022)

As a result of Churchill’s new gate is made as a contiguous factor, versus having a “important” gate and an “auxiliary” part because the previous gate did, it does afford a number of extra essential inches of room to the within horses, and notably to the rail horse. Nonetheless, Derby begins being the chaos they’re, it’s axiomatic amongst horsemen, oddsmakers, and pundits alike that the additional outdoors one is within the Churchill gate on the primary weekend in Could, the larger the chance of getting an undisturbed, clear break, which is the inspiration for the Derby’s Holy Grail, particularly, a clear journey. Evidently, clear breaks are a skinny on the bottom of the Derby.

The person on the recent seat of the rail this yr, coach Todd Pletcher, has described his cost Mo Donegal, at 10-1, rated by Mr. Battaglia because the race’s fourth-place favourite till the observe’s home windows open on Friday, as “a locomotive,” which is to say, he’s bought a bruising momentum that may’t be stopped. New Churchill gate or not, it is a good offense for the Derby rail horse to convey to the crush coming down on him within the prompt of and within the moments after the break.

But when Mo Donegal is as powerful as Pletcher thinks, he’ll give Epicenter and his jockey, the estimable Joel Rosario, lots to fret about, breaking as they’re from two stalls to the best. In a means, Epicenter and Rosario are caught in a pickle, or extra precisely, in a vise, and are available Saturday that can definitely change the handicapping and maybe even the route of bigger chunks of the cash. In a means, Epicenter and Rosario have drawn the worst doable put up place within the discipline.

As a result of: They’ve bought Mo Donegal bulling by means of them like a linebacker up on their left, and within the 4 gap instantly to their proper, absolutely the velocity of the sphere in Summer season Is Tomorrow, who will, additionally, be blasting previous. Given a clear break — an iffy prospect at any Derby — Summer season Is Tomorrow could be at or close to the entrance, and sharply so, as a result of that’s what velocity does. The key platoon of Derby insanity, the sixteen different horses roiling up the best flank of Summer season Is Tomorrow, will kind the impenetrable proper wall of the field wherein Epicenter will probably be caught.

Such a break — a fairly pure one for a Derby, it needs to be identified — would face Epicenter with an infinite quantity of detailed threading work to do across the two turns with a backstreatch in between that Zandon, breaking means out west within the comparatively clear air of the ten gap, wouldn’t have in entrance of him. Zandon would produce other issues, however backside line, with no Mo Donegal to his left and no velocity demon instantly to his proper, Zandon has a greater shot at discovering a nice spot to settle. He can run extra of “his” race, and fewer of “their” race from the get-go, and that’s the final Derby reward. It weights any battle between the highest two favorites towards Zandon, away from Epicenter, by a larger margin than simply that half-point in Mr. Battaglia’s morning line would have us imagine.

In opposition to that grim image for the second-favorite Epicenter, Mo Donegal at the very least has no horse on his left. It’s proven fact that to be ranked by Mr. Battaglia because the Derby’s fourth favourite whereas on the rail is an unbridled testomony to the horse’s power. How that power will come into play towards the formidable Messier, who at 8-1 is Mo Donegal’s quick odds rival breaking from 5 stalls out towards clear nation, will probably be a goodly chunk of Mo Donegal’s race.

Contacted within the hurricane of Derby Week social occasions within the Bluegrass and in Louisville, our very personal Bluegrass Sensible Man ™, a born-and-bred Kentucky horseman, had this sage remark on the highest 5 morning-line favorites: “Actual horse race this yr. There’s no dominant determine, no man-to-beat, no Secretariat, no Justify. The faves are all going through uphill battles of 1 kind or one other, or, like Taiba, they’re simply so unknown that you simply nearly don’t know what to do with ‘em. Of the highest 5, what we do know is it’s a Derby. Which implies that a few of them are going to run one another, and themselves, straight out of the cash. The trick will probably be determining who’s not gonna try this. ”