On Tuesday, the scenario in Severodonetsk continues to be unstable, however the newest stories have town kind of cut up down the middle. Ukrainian forces management the commercial space on the west, in addition to outlying villages and the southern fringe of town close to the bridge to Lysychansk. Russia is positioned within the northern space and combating with Ukrainian forces within the east. Each side proceed to go at it hammer and tongs on a street-by-street stage, and neither is holding again the artillery. A report in The Guardian signifies that Russian efforts have been “redoubled” following the Ukrainian counterattack. It’s ugly.
The neighboring metropolis of Lysychansk, just a few kilometers south of Severodonetsk, was being “completely destroyed”, he added. “Russian shelling has intensified considerably over the previous 24 hours. They’re utilizing scorched earth techniques,” he mentioned, including {that a} faculty and market had been hit, and a university constructing flattened.
Ukraine can maintain combating in Severodonetsk as lengthy as these weapons in Lysychansk can assist their positions. So there’s little doubt Russian artillery is concentrated on tanking down these weapons.
In the meantime, only a few miles to the west, Russian forces are reportedly gathering for what’s anticipated to be a giant push on town of Slovyansk.
Preparatory to creating one other try and cross the Siverskyi Donets, following the sooner catastrophe close to Bilohorivka, Russia is trying to seize the ultimate Ukrainian-held positions on the north financial institution of the river. For months, Ukraine was capable of maintain a big place on the northern aspect of the river, however the fall of Oskil two weeks in the past eliminated a crucial lynchpin. Since then, Russia has closed up the “pocket” of Ukrainian management that remained east of Izyum, a marketing campaign that concluded within the final two days with the seize of Studenok. Along with the seize of the massive city of Lyman, this freed Russian forces to go after the remaining riverside villages and cities.
As of Tuesday, combating was nonetheless reported in Sviatohirsk and at lengthy dug-in Ozerne. There are not any confirmations, however Russia has doubtless occupied Yarova, the place Ukrainian forces reportedly withdrew. Some stories additionally counsel that Russia has taken the village of Shchurove, throughout the river from Raihorodok.
This drone footage, from a Russian supply, not solely exhibits the attractive previous monastery at Sviatohirsk but in addition offers a good suggestion of the terrain across the river. The bridge on this video doesn’t appear to have been deliberately dropped, however is broken by artillery. It could nonetheless have been satisfactory on the time of the video.
A Russian pontoon bridging group was reportedly shifting west from Rubizhne on Monday, trying to find a brand new crossing location. After they do, don’t be stunned if it seems to be inside spitting distance of the place the place Russia already did not cross three instances. That’s as a result of, at many areas on this space, the south aspect of the river is missed by an space of steep hills or bluffs. That might make any bridging operation a simple goal for Ukrainian artillery, and topic any models that did cross to withering hearth as they tried to increase the bridgehead.
At Kherson, stories have been in all places. Within the final 12 hours, there have been Russian stories that every one Ukrainian forces east of the Inhulets River had been eradicated and that Russia had made its personal cross to the opposite aspect. Extra stories point out that Ukraine is knocking on the door of town with forces heading in from a number of instructions. Neither of those is more likely to be true.
From the Ukrainian aspect particularly there have been a number of stories of serious progress, with forces mentioned to be “driving for Nova Kakhovka,” which is throughout the bridge north of Kherson. Nonetheless, that bridge is an effective 40km from the final recognized place of Ukrainian forces, and there are an excellent dozen cities and villages in between, none of which has turned up in these stories as altering fingers in the previous few hours. This makes it look like all these stories are extra aspirational—“we’re able to go for Nova Kakhova!”—moderately than a literal “We’re on our option to Nova Kakhova!”
Largely the information out of Kherson will be described with the phrase “irritating.” Official sources are being even quieter about motion on this entrance than they have been about actions round Kharkiv a month in the past. As all the time, they’re beneath completely zero obligation to expose any motion to the general public, particularly when it would place troopers or civilians in danger. It’s simply … it could be good to know.
One factor we do know is that the Ukrainian Air Power has engaged in air strikes within the Kherson space during the last day. That’s excellent news within the sense that Russia doesn’t have something like air superiority within the area. Based on the Ukrainian MOD basic workers:
“Ukrainian helicopters have attacked groupings of enemy forces in Kherson Oblast. … Planes have performed an airstrike on ammunition depots in Mykolaiv Oblast. The enemy has misplaced over 20 personnel and 10 items of army tools.” A type of depots being taken out was featured within the final replace.
As quickly as I get extra data, or affirmation, about what’s occurring in Kherson, I’m greater than able to put down a number of new blue markers.
Tractors could possibly tow away Russian tanks, however they’re, sadly, not mine proof. Farming is already one of the harmful jobs on the planet (even in the U.S.). This can be a hazard they positively don’t want.
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Mark Sumner
An excellent thread from translator Dmitri.
