Whether or not by battlefield success or strategic Ukrainian retreat, Russia is seeing some success within the Lyman-Severodonetsk axis.
It appears fated Russia finally swallow up Lyman and Severodonetsk, simply off the fitting fringe of the map above—they’re the final two remaining Ukrainian strongholds north of the Donets River. And given Russia’s extreme troubles fording that river, Ukraine can have extra defensible territory on the southern financial institution when and in the event that they’re pushed again.
That Russian Popasna salient on the bottom-right of the map above might be extra problematic. There’s no river down there to supply fall-back safety if Ukrainian defensive traces collapse. Fortunately, Russia has been unable or unwilling to totally exploit that breakthrough, however they may proceed their drip-drip-drip of of cannon-fodder expenses till Ukrainian defenses are worn via. Or not less than, that’s their hope.
Fast apart: Bear in mind when everybody (together with the Pentagon and UK intelligence) stated Russia had an enormous, large offensive in retailer for the japanese Donbas after their humiliating Kyiv retreat? Bear in mind how I laughed off the likelihood, given Russia’s full incapacity to exhibit any capability to launch large-scale coordinated assaults? I don’t fake to at all times be proper, however I’m so glad I known as this one appropriately. Our largest concern ought to be Russia studying from its errors. (And possibly nuclear annihilation, on additional thought…)
Not going to lie, I don’t know why Ukraine fights so onerous for Lyman and Severodonetsk. Neither have any significantly strategic worth. They’ve each been largely emptied of civilians, flattened by Russian artillery. However Russia’s beneficial properties within the space (like in every single place else on this entrance) have come at a frightful value, so maybe there’s no cause to desert meticulously created defensive emplacements till they really have to abandon them? Russia is actually telegraphing uncertainty about its capability to seize the town, resulting in these disastrous bridging makes an attempt to encompass Severodonetsk.
These rash, determined river crossings underscore simply how Severodonetsk is to Russia’s battle planners for the time being. It clearly wants a victory to parade on state TV, to encourage flagging morale, and to offer its aimless slog function. The victory doesn’t have to be strategic. In actuality, it will be a fair smaller goal than its already shrunken territorial ambitions:
Russia is working out of troops and heading to the purpose of end result, a phrase you’ll be listening to increasingly—the purpose the place a military is so degraded that it might probably now not struggle. Ukraine went on the counter-offensive round Kharkiv, and Russia had nothing. This supposedly mighty superpower, the world’s second-best military, pathetically retreated within the face of flippantly armed territorial protection troops. Russia couldn’t even muster any reserves from Belgorod, only a stone’s throw away. They’re running on fumes.
Russian non-public army corporations are reportedly forming mixed models with airborne components as a consequence of important losses in manpower. Denaturing elite airborne models with mercenaries is surprising, and could be the clearest indication but that Russia has exhausted its out there combat-ready manpower reserves. The Russian 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade is reportedly receiving personnel from different Black Sea Fleet models, together with navy ship crewmembers. Newly shaped or regrouped models are unlikely to be efficient in fight.
Russia has needed to withdraw not less than a few of its forces from the Izyum salient—its largest focus of troops in all of Ukraine with about 20-25% of its complete battalion tactical teams—to protect its important provide hub at Kupiansk. Russia shouldn’t overly sweat it, as a result of Ukraine is urgent straight on Izyum as a substitute from the west and sure its northwest.
NASA FIRMS satellite tv for pc imagery is quiet as we speak, but it surely’s additionally been raining. Cloud cowl can obscure sensors, and moist circumstances can suppress fires. Or possibly everybody took Sunday off, who is aware of. Fog of battle, and all.
In the meantime, Russia is having a troublesome time with individuals doing shit regardless of its threats. There’s Kyrgyzstan:
Finland and Sweden, after all:
There was Poland.
And Iceland…
They’re threatening UK:
They even threaten a singing competitors.
Russia is a bankrupt nation with a bankrupt military and a bankrupt chief who has misplaced his thoughts. They dominated their area and struck concern into its neighbors by pretending to have a functioning superpower-class army. As a substitute, the one acceptable responses to threats like those above appear like this:
