Russia expended appreciable efforts to take Kyiv within the first 5 weeks of the warfare, for all the apparent causes: Regime decapitation, propaganda worth, reducing off provide routes to Ukrainian forces within the east, and so forth.
Nonetheless, the hassle rapidly bumped into bother. The prong from the northwest, by means of Chernobyl, stalled at Bucha and Irpin. From the northeast, Russia’s lack of ability to take Chernihiv mounted Russian forces simply over their border. Thus, determined to encircle Kyiv, Russia stretched itself out from Sumy, all the way in which to the capital’s japanese outskirts.
You may see the 2 lengthy, billowy east-west provide traces from the Sumy area. Maps marked these roads as Russian managed, however the truth was fairly completely different. For weeks, Ukraine feasted on provide convoys making an attempt that journey (here, here, here, here, here, and here, are only a few examples), till on the finish of March, Russia cried “uncle!” and that was that. These forces have been withdrawn. Effectively, what shards of them remained.
Why carry up this outdated bit of reports?
U.S. intelligence has been largely good this total warfare, so it’s arduous to dismiss it out of hand. However … wut?
The plain aim is to attempt to enact a pincer maneuver from Izyum within the north, to Mariupol within the south, to lure the third (or so) of the Ukrainian military at present holding defensive entrenched positions on the border with the purple separatist-held space. Efforts to breach these defensive positions head-on have repeatedly failed, all the way in which again to 2014, therefore the hassle to encompass them and minimize them off from provides and reinforcements.
The pincer maneuver is hard sufficient, requiring Russia to stretch out round 200 kilometers (~120 miles). This opens them up to the identical resupply points they confronted up of their Sumy-to-Kyiv effort, whereas concurrently exposing themselves to flank assaults from each the east and the west.
I famous over the weekend that there’s little indication Russia can mass the form of forces wanted to make an actual go at this. The present, apparent plan is already a little bit of a Hail Mary move, as Russia desperately tries to notch any success in time for Vladimir Putin’s treasured WWII commemorative parade on Could 9.
But regardless of the tough odds, Russia is supposedly seeking to moreover march on Dnipro? Let’s get a close-up of the route Russian forces must take:
To begin with, there isn’t a direct freeway to Dnipro. Shortest route could be to go west by means of Hrushuvakha (pop. 800), down by means of Lozova (pop. 55,000), take a proper at Pavlohrad (pop. 109,000), then push by means of Novomoskovsk (pop. 70,000), and the remainder of the japanese suburbs to Dnipro (pop. 966,400). Complete distance? 231 kilometers (144 miles).
Or Russia might head east, by means of tiny Hrushuvakha once more, all the way in which out to Sakhnovshchyna (pop. 7,000), to the outskirts of Krasnohrad (pop. 20,000), then straight south towards Dnipro till they hit Novomoskovsk. Dramatically smaller inhabitants facilities! However the distance is now nearer to 300 kilometers (186 miles). Each routes would endure from the identical uncovered flanks because the pincer. And looking out on the satellite tv for pc imagery of the route, it’s all like this:
That’s wide-open agricultural fields, punctuated by the occasional wooded forest. In the meantime, Ukrainian artillery would sit in Dnipro and hammer any approaching columns, whereas these woods would supply pure ambush websites. Ukrainian drones might function removed from most Russian air defenses. It could seem like extra of this:
And say Russia will get to the outskirts of Dnipro, then what? It gained’t enter. Russia can’t even take cities on its border with zero provide traces to fret about. Are we actually going to fake that Russia would have an opportunity in opposition to a a lot larger metropolis than Kharkiv, Sumy, or Mariupol, besides on the finish of an extended, prolonged, and weak provide line?
U.S. intelligence is fallible. It has, at varied occasions, and a number of occasions, claimed Belarus was about to straight enter the warfare, and that Odesa confronted an amphibious assault. And certain, I guess Russian generals are at present hovering over a map of Ukraine, fantasizing about taking Dnipro. However we’d be so fortunate if Russia tried to drag that set off. It gained’t. Similar to their fantasies of taking Kyiv and Odesa won’t ever be realized.
Shifting gears barely, I’ve famous a number of occasions, together with yesterday, how Russia is incapable of attacking with greater than 1-2 Battalion Tactical Teams at a time. Right here’s extra proof:
They’ve received six BTGs in Izyum. At full-strength, every would have 800 troopers, or 4,800 complete. (Bear in mind, a giant chunk are help, however let’s fake Russia is throwing everybody into the meat grinder.) Why not mass that drive and punch by means of Ukrainian defenses south of Izyum? Or higher but, why not anticipate the remainder of the reinforcements from the Kyiv and Sumy operations to reach within the space, and slam the hell out of Ukrainian defenses? As a result of they’ll’t. And as we noticed yesterday, these BTGs aren’t even at full energy. Nowhere close to it, the truth is. Ukraine will get to deal with the drip-drip of Russian assaults, as a result of the previous superpower is incapable of turning on the spigot.
And truly, we actually don’t must fake that Russia is throwing help personnel into the meat grinder, as a result of we all know they’re. We have evidence:
Three lieutenants, three officers, means they’re out of contract troopers to crew armored personnel carriers (APC). Bear in mind, Russia doesn’t have a non-commissioned-officer corps to bridge the hole between the officer corps and decrease enlisted personnel. So apparently, it was both untrained uneducated conscripts, or three officers.
However they weren’t even fight officers, with expertise dealing with such gear! One was a climate man, possible there to assist inform aviation efforts. However since so few planes and helicopters are flying, I suppose it made him expendable. So yeah, the help guys, together with officers, are being thrown into the identical meat grinder because the (possible additionally lifeless) conscripts who have been within the again of that APC. I doubt my 15% rule is operative anymore.
Russia is operating low on expert troopers and may’t handle a half-coherent assault a couple of kilometers south of Izyum. So no, they’re not going to now push 230-300 kilometers to Dnipro. That’s the dumbest shit I’ve heard all warfare, in a warfare so f’n silly, that if it was a film, we’d all groan and provides it a thumbs down for being so unrealistic.
