Information out of Mariupol means that most of the remaining Ukrainian fighters are restricted to the Azovstal metallic refinery on the southeast of town. Which will make it appear that Russia has these Ukrainian forces backed right into a single constructing, which they will merely stage with the subsequent spherical of artillery.
However that plant is definitely an unlimited expanse of linked refineries, factories, workplaces, and transport amenities. Total, there’s a couple of sq. mile of Azovstal buildings, plus miles extra of slag heaps, coal piles, and metallic ore round them. It was simply the least scenic space in Mariupol, even earlier than the bombing started—the type of industrial hellscape seen in some American cities earlier than the metal business was made to scrub up its act. It’s simply that now the remainder of the Mariupol has been decreased to match.
The blue space right here represents a lot of the Azovstal buildings. That is additionally the realm the place numerous surrenders have been reported on Wednesday. This implies that not everybody on this space—which is thought to have held members of the thirty sixth Marine Brigade—took half within the give up. On the west aspect of the map, within the space coloured yellow, is an space that was earlier recognized to be beneath the management of the Azov Battalion. Some members of the thirty sixth earlier fought their approach throughout that hole in between (an area that comprises a number of the slag heaps, coal piles, and many others) to attach with Azov. Firstly of the week, Ukrainian fighters have been additionally stated to carry positions within the north-central a part of town, however there have been few reviews from that space and the present standing isn’t recognized.
In any case, Russia appears targeted on crushing the resistance that continues to be at Azovstal.
Someday at present, Oryx’s web page monitoring gear losses in Ukraine is prone to tally the three,000th verified Russian loss. (On the time of this writing, it’s sitting at 2,899, together with 507 tanks, however there are a number of autos recognized to not presently be included in these totals). It’s been some time now since we ran the report on Russian losses from the Ukrainian ministry of protection, however listed below are these numbers at this level.
Whereas these numbers are greater than these at Oryx, that web site solely data the gear that may be verified from pictures and movies launched on-line, and which will be decided to not be a replica of another picture. Which means the Oryx numbers are a minimal. For probably the most half, the Ukrainian MOD numbers appear fully affordable, with the attainable exception of the plane, which can be comprehensible. A shot fired at a tank is probably going to provide considerably definitive outcomes, however a bullet fired at a jet or helicopter, even when it really works, might not go away behind a wreck on Ukrainian territory. It’s simple to think about troopers reporting that they scored successful, however don’t have a tail quantity on the bottom to be recorded.
A prisoner trade reportedly occurred between Russian and Ukrainian forces exterior Kherson. The variety of the prisoners exchanged was small—4 Russian troopers for 5 Ukrainians—however the location might inform us one thing.
The placement was the village of Posad-Pokrovske, alongside the M14 freeway connecting Mykolaiv and Kherson. This place can seemingly be considered the present line between Russian and Ukrainian forces within the space, suggesting that regardless of an obvious Ukrainian try and take Kherson from the south, and an trade of a number of cities and villages to the northeast, the border of occupied territory alongside this route hasn’t actually modified within the final two weeks.
Russian media is spinning additional and additional into their very own type of Pu-Anon.
As with many such conspiracy theories, the most important level is to say that your enemy—on this case, each NATO and the EU—may be very weak and shortly going to crumble, leaving your group within the driver’s seat. This sort of declare will be good at elevating morale and confidence within the quick time period. In the long run, folks start to note that your surprise group is at all times dropping to a weak group.
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Mark Sumner
This appears to be like like a repeat of the earlier tweet on the Azovstal manufacturing unit, however I’m placing it in for a purpose. Look what Russia is utilizing to hold out this bombing.
These are “Backfire bombers” to make use of the Western time period that was widespread coinage in the course of the Chilly Battle. They have been as soon as certainly one of Russia’s most feared strategic weapons, a supersonic bomber able to carrying nuclear missiles 4,000 kilometers to strike at distant targets.
Now it’s getting used to drop bombs on a warehouse in Mariupol, thirty miles from the Russian border. There’s not only a “how the mighty have fallen” facet to this, however a giant … Huh. Why would they try this?
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Mark Sumner
Russian forces have taken down Ukrainian flags that have been nonetheless flying over metropolis and oblast workplaces in Kherson, Skadovsk, and Oleshky and raised Russian flags of their place. If there was ever any query about Russia’s intention to simply maintain this territory, that’s over.
