Russia continues to shift already-battered forces towards Japanese Ukraine and has made new strikes round Kherson, however there’s nonetheless no clear image of what Russia’s precise subsequent plans is perhaps. There are hints that Russian leaders are centered on capturing a broad part of the nation centered round Kramatorsk, which might enable Russian troops to totally encircle deeply dug-in Ukrainian defenders who’ve lengthy held again separatist goals within the Donbas—however outdoors observers are skeptical that Russia might pull off such an formidable operation. Every of the logistical issues that plagued Russia in its Kyiv assaults—from lack of coordination to lack of communication to lengthy provide traces that have been relentlessly (and really efficiently) hounded by Ukrainian territorial defenders—would solely be doubled; the battalions Russia is sending have already seen arduous preventing and heavy losses.
Russian leaders, nevertheless, is perhaps so determined for one thing that may be portrayed as victory that they’re keen to throw as many troops as is important at Ukrainian defenses. We have circled from pre-war predictions—most positing that Russia would tear by means of Ukraine’s defenses like metal by means of paper—to specialists struggling to give you a situation through which Russia cobbles collectively any navy victory in any respect.
That doesn’t imply it’s not doable. It additionally doesn’t suggest Russia won’t proceed to inflict horrific violence on Ukrainian civilians—the one Russian navy ability that seems to have survived Putin’s purge of competence. At the moment’s updates:
