It’s mentioned the definition of madness is doing the identical factor time and again whereas anticipating a special outcome. If that’s the case … Russia qualifies.
We noticed it within the early days of the struggle in Hostomel airport northwest of Kyiv. Russia made an unsupported airborne touchdown on the bottom. Received worn out. Tried it once more. Similar outcome. There could have been a 3rd try, however the airport wasn’t captured till the spearhead of Russia’s assault, on the bottom, arrived just a few days later.
We’re presently seeing it on Snake Island, of “Russia warship, go fuck your self” fame. Over the previous week, Russian forces have been worn out a number of instances (here, here, here, and here), and but final night time we noticed Russian troops touchdown there once again. (Russia state media tried to claim that it was Ukrainians who had been defeated on the island … utilizing the Ukrainian armed forces video (with their emblem on the highest proper nook) that includes the Bayraktar TB-2 drone interface, of which Russia has none. The destruction of the ship, when Ukraine has no navy, was a pleasant contact of hilarity.)
However nothing is as dramatic because the saga of the riverside crossing at Bilohorivka, the place Russia didn’t simply undergo one disastrous river-crossing try, however three of them over the previous few days.
Rubizhne, high proper, was captured by Russia this week. Severodonetsk, on the proper, is presently hell on earth, Russia’s present primary goal, being hit on three sides and beneath relentless months-long bombardment. As I famous earlier, Severodonetsk is on the north aspect of the river, so its Ukrainian defenders can, if wanted, retreat throughout the river to Lysychansk, the place the river offers pure safety.
On condition that Russia will ultimately have to cross the river, they clearly thought, why not now, permitting them to utterly encompass Severodonetsk, chopping off its defenders, and short-circuiting any fall again positions in Lysychansk. Bilohorivka was such an apparent place to make the try, that this Ukrainian military engineer claimed to have guessed it forward of time (account is unconfirmed, however a lot of it checks out).
Russia made its first effort Could 8, and it was totally decimated, destroying a number of dozen autos. The bridge lay half-sunk.
Russian command and management construction is very centralized, giving native commanders zero skill to deviate from acknowledged orders. So if excessive command mentioned “get to Bilohorivka,” effectively, who was to say one thing like, “Guys, Ukraine has our quantity, possibly we should always search for a brand new place to cross?” Nah, giving native commanders, or any commanders for that matter, the reward of “free pondering and initiative” may result in a army coup. Greatest to maintain them silly. Therefore … strive quantity 2:
You’ll be able to see the remnants of that first bridge simply above it, both utterly submerged or towed away through the second try. Extra charred autos had been added to the checklist.
Then somebody from Moscow or Belgorod known as and screamed, “do we have now Bilohorivka but?” And for the reason that reply was no, then yeah, sigh, there they went once more.
The open supply intelligence (OSINT) crowd acquired to counting the harm, or not less than, what could possibly be decided from drone footage. Simply picture after picture tagged like this:
The automobile rely retains rising because the OSINT people discover extra autos amongst the wreckage. The newest? 82.
These 82 autos embrace eight within the river. The tally contains 14 tanks and 62 infantry preventing autos. A Russian battalion tactical group (BTG) has 10 tanks and 40 IFVs, however there’s no such factor as a full-strength BTG in Ukraine. Possible by no means was. So Russia simply misplaced two BTGs value of troops trying to make the identical compromised river crossing three instances. Are you able to think about the drone operator calling it in?
Drone operator: ”One other crossing!”
Artillery fireplace course: “Shit! What are the coordinates?”
Drone operator: “Uh, similar ones!”
Artillery fireplace course: “Ha! Okay, I actually thought you had been kidding the second time! That was loopy. However critically, what are the brand new coordinates?”
That engineer I linked to above claims 1,500 lifeless, citing “rumors.” That might recommend two almost full-strength BTGs, so is sort of actually overstated. InformNapalm, which has been masking the struggle since 2014 and has sources inside Ukrainian intelligence, claims that solely 65 of 550 Russians trying the crossing survived. Whereas ~490 lifeless appears believable, solely 550 Russians trying the crossing appears low. A single BTG would have 600-1,000 troopers, so 550 would solely workers one undermanned BTG.
Russia has 22 BTGs on this axis, so on this ill-fated multi-effort river-crossing debacle, it has misplaced almost 10% of its whole preventing pressure. However hey, why cease once they’re so near succeeding? Right here’s hoping they’re silly sufficient to offer it a fourth shot.
And when you assume I’m joking, from that InformNapalm report:
After [the third attempt], different servicemen of the brigade started to put in writing “refusal”, however the zampolits [political commissar] tried to intimidate them with jail phrases and exert psychological stress.
Additionally, InformNapalm sources report that they noticed a automobile on this course at present, which is visually similar to the cell level of psychological work of the Russian Armed Forces. Most likely for the psychological remedy of the servicemen of the brigade, which suffered heavy losses.
If that report is right, it means Russia is actually attempting to pressure its troopers to offer it one more shot. Hopefully these troopers select correctly—jail appears far preferable than no matter destiny met the poor souls on these three bridging makes an attempt.
