Ukraine is pushing out from Kyiv within the north, Kharkiv and Sumy within the northeast, and Mykolaiv towards Kherson within the south. Right here we’re within the northeast:
This may be the assault into Trostyanets, south of Sumy. You understand how amateurs speak technique, and professionals speak logistics? Nicely, time to be amateurs and speak technique. Let’s take a look at the map:
Trostyanets is instantly south of Sumy. It’s the highest arrow and circled on the map. Under it’s Okhtyrka, which Russia had tried to take over the past week.
So right here’s what Ukraine accomplishes by taking Trostyanets:
1) Russia is making an attempt to completely encircle Sumy, to put siege in the identical method as Mariupol. By taking that metropolis, it protects Sumy’s southern method, which features a freeway to Kharkiv and a rail line. We haven’t talked about rail, however trains are essentially the most environment friendly option to transfer gear and provides. With Trostyanets in Ukrainian arms, it appears like provide strains are clear to each Kharkiv, and, zooming out, all the best way to Kyiv. Oh take a look at that, we talked logistics in spite of everything!
2) The second decrease arrow is Okhtyrka, which has been closely shelled and assaulted in latest weeks. Holding the city would’ve allowed Russia to consolidate its forces to Sumy’s south as they labored to encircle the town. By taking Trostyanets, Ukraine put an finish to that effort. Oh hey, logistics once more! By the way, this is the place the primary lady awarded Ukraine’s Hero of Ukraine award was killed. She was a fight medic killed by Russian artillery as she handled wounded troopers.
3) Russia’s incapacity to take cities has led to its murderous “indiscriminately shell civilians till they give up” technique. It hasn’t labored out militarily, however Russia doesn’t care. It’s how they’re taking out their anger and aggression on these insolent Ukrainians. Trostyanets was the house of a type of artillery items. We noticed this drone video two weeks in the past:
In as we speak’s liberation, we see each destroyed self-propelled artillery weapons, and within the group-soldier shot, crates and crates of captured 155mm artillery rounds at that very same railway station.
This can be very harmful for Ukraine to go on the offensive, leaving ready defenses and exposing themselves to direct artillery fireplace, shut air assist, mines, and Russia’s personal ready defenses. Every goal must be chosen fastidiously. It’s clear that Ukraine selected this one properly, blocking the encirclement of Sumy, reconnecting rail service to Kharkiv and Kyiv, and eliminating a serious supply of artillery distress raining dying on civilians in Sumy. Now we’ll see if Russia has the juice to retake it.
The map above assumes Russian management from Trostyanets to Lebedin on to its northwest, the place it marks Lebedin as Ukrainian-held however contested. I couldn’t discover any latest information about Lebedin, so I think that tendril of Russian management has been rolled again.
Let’s head on over to Kharkiv, the place Ukraine is celebrating the liberation of Vilkhivka. It’s a small little village, has like 5 roads. However the battle was fierce.
It’s proper on Kharkiv’s japanese border, and halts Russian efforts to attach their forces round Kharkiv, with their forces on the japanese Donbas entrance. Had Russia continued to make positive aspects in japanese Kharkiv, they’d be near full management of that bypass freeway round Kharkiv, permitting for the resupply of troops besieging Izyum, and that whole line of defense that stretches out to Sievierodonetsk (surrounded on three sides), by some means nonetheless holding on.
Look how lengthy and uncovered that provide tendril is from Russian-occupied Donbas, to the forces besieging Izyum. Look how a lot easier issues can be if they may rush provides instantly from Russia, above Kharkiv. This is the reason Russia’s incapacity to take these border cities of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv are so disastrous for Russia. As a result of, sure, logistics. Strategic selections are at all times pushed by logistics, as a result of logistics are the sport.
However technique can also be attention-grabbing.
Extra movies of the battle here and here. The battlefield is buzzing with drones, giving Ukraine’s forces intelligence into what they’re going through up the highway. Ukrainian artillery takes out uncovered Russian positions. Infantry quickens the highway in civilian SUVs, stopping when the drones see hazard up forward, and letting armored personnel carriers filter defensive positions within the method to the village. On the town, Russian defenders are holed up in some office-looking constructing, so they carry up a tank to shell it. We then see infantry fanning out all through the city, participating in door-to-door city fight. Numerous Russians surrendered.
The place was the Russian artillery, concentrating on Ukrainian forces massed in broad daylight? The place was Russian close-air assist? Nowhere to be seen.
Down south, the Ukrainian noose is tightening round Kherson, because the villages of Tomina Balka and Snihurivka had been liberated.
Simply 4 days in the past, Russia was making an attempt to push up to the southern edge of Mykolaiv, however all of that’s historical past as all of the orange and pink territory will get rolled up. The governor of Mykolaiv Oblast, Vitaliy Kim, says Russians deserted its checkpoints in Snihurivka. Given the shortage of fight video, I’m going to invest that Russia has retreated from all the area round Kherson to defend the town.
Russia did have its successes as we speak. They finally captured Slavutych, on to Chernihiv’s west, and made positive aspects to its south. [Update: Russian troops left Slavutych after negotiations with mayor.] Town is now totally encircled, and is getting the Mariupol therapy. Russia has blown the bridge connecting Chernihiv to Kyiv, which impacts each provide routes, and the power for refugees to flee. The state of affairs is dire.
Hopefully Ukraine can clear that pocket to Kyiv’s northeast, then push as much as relieve the siege of Chernihiv. It’s not clear that’s been driving Ukraine’s efforts on Kyiv’s japanese flank. The well-known Russian caravan and troops in Bucha are obnoxious, however they’re not shut sufficient to threaten Kyiv with artillery. They’re additionally contained, motionless, and digging into defensive positions. Thus, apart from opening up that freeway from Kyiv to the nation’s west, the actual focus will doubtless be rescuing Chernihiv. Godspeed to that.
