Something *big* is happening, as the Battle of the Izyum Salient begins

With unconfirmed experiences that Ukraine has pushed Russia principally out of its territory north of Kharkiv, we’ve been speculating the place Ukraine would counter subsequent—towards the railhead northeast of Kharkiv in Vovchansk, or the the logistical hub at Kupiansk, the place three main rail traces join. Each these places would reduce off the circulate of provides to the Izyum salient and Russia’s 22 battalion tactical teams (BTGs) within the pocket—the largest concentration of Russian forces anyplace in Ukraine. 

Ukraine took a take a look at each of these vital logistical facilities, after which determined to hit the salient instantly as a substitute. 

NASA FIRMS satellite data, designed to trace forest fires, provides us an ideal indication of the route of fight: 

The woods to the west of Izyum, the place any Ukrainian counteroffensive would originate, are lit. It’s taking place. 

Additionally be aware how, east of Izyum, the road of fireplace precisely follows the north financial institution of the Donets River—these are both Ukraine’s final positions on that financial institution (simply Lyman and Severodonetsk at this level), or Russian forces who’ve reached the waterline being shelled by Ukrainian artillery. 

We will even see the large artillery barrage at Russia’s ill-fated Bilohorivka river crossing try. When you haven’t learn my story on Bilohorivka but, I extremely advocate it. It is perhaps essentially the most unbelievable story of the struggle. In the meantime, these fires north of Kharkiv are on newly liberated Ukrainian territory, which suggests Russia is firing artillery on these positions both to decelerate their advance, or just out of punitive anger. A lot of Russia’s army technique seems to be a manifestation of Vladimir Putin’s aggrieved, irrational rage. 

Again to the Battle of the Izyum Salient, Russian telegram claims 5 Ukrainian brigades are shifting in on Izyum from the north, trying to instantly reduce off provide traces to the majority of the Russian forces within the salient. That will be the equal of 10-15 Russian BTGs which appears … fantastical. Given how nicely Ukraine has fought, Russians could also be mythifying them so they appear 10 ft tall and thrice their quantity. However for context, a Ukrainian brigade is round 1,600 troops and 200 armored automobiles. If these experiences are right, we’re speaking about 1,000 armored automobiles, and a metric buttload of artillery, raining on Russian positions. Ukraine had 20 brigades pre-war, with one other 4 in reserve, that are possible already in motion. Extra are being created from reservists, however there’s no indication they’ve needed to be fielded simply but. So 5 brigades can be a large dedication of forces. 

No matter their precise measurement (and I do hope it’s 5 brigades), these Russian sources on telegram additionally say Ukraine has crossed the Donets for the assault. So if Ukraine is crossing the Donets to assault Izyum’s provide traces, then this looks like a logical place to take action: 

And that NASA FIRMS map actually helps the notion of ongoing operations each in that pocket, and on the east aspect of the Donets within the pink (contested) territory simply west of Izyum. 

Keep in mind, Ukraine doesn’t announce operations prematurely. Taking a look at FIRMS imagery over the previous a number of days, we will really see the counter-offensive started on Could 10-11:

Russia deserted Kharkiv as a result of it had no reserves left. Ukrainian common workers and the Pentagon have stated Russia has 19 BTGs in reserve in Belgorod, so why weren’t they rushed to Kharkiv to defend their provide traces? If there’s something left in Russia, it’s possible shattered remnants and troops refusing to deploy or redeploy.

Now, with Russia already at its limits, Ukraine is taking direct intention on the largest focus of Russian forces in Ukraine. 

Guys, 20-25% of Russia’s whole Military is in that pocket.

One thing massive is going on.

I imply massive, as in war-altering. 

We have been taking a look at Izyum’s provide hubs in Kupiansk and Vochansk. Ukraine goes straight for the jugular as a substitute.