(I’m basing this report on early data. The fog of battle is thick. So method all the things with applicable hesitation and skepticism.)
The day’s huge battle information is … it’s huge. Ukraine has sunk the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the guided missile cruiser Moskva—the very ship Ukrainians informed to go fuck themselves on the primary day of the battle.
Additional studies say the ship has sunk, with Russia evacuating “some” of the ship’s sailors. Whereas it’s uncertain we get a truthful account of casualties from the Russians, that is probably the biggest mass-casualty occasion for the invaders this complete battle, whereas shedding a ship probably costing within the a whole lot of tens of millions of {dollars}. (An American guided missile cruiser prices round $1 billion.)
Piecing collectively studies from the Open Supply Intelligence Group and Russian studies, we’re getting an image of how the operation performed out. (And word, there’s loads of misinformation floating round, like this, so I’ve been very cautious piecing this collectively.)
Initially, there’s this bit of reports that emerged at the moment:
Nobody will affirm, for a very long time, whether or not focusing on was aided by American intelligence, however Open Supply Intelligence (OSINT) sources who observe plane flights declare that each one NATO intelligence planes had cleared out of the Black Sea previous to the assault (or at the very least turned off their transponders, making them go darkish).
In response to a supposed Russian intercept (take into account data unconfirmed), Ukraine flew a TB2 Bayraktar round Mykolaiv, grabbing the Moskva’s consideration, which has apparently been offering anti-air radar and missile companies in the course of the battle. A translation by a random Twitter consumer translated the gist of the intercept (stuffed with army slang that stymied lots of people):
A “malicious program” plane was flying between Voznesensk and Mykolaiv, round Kryviy Rih. Moskva was offering lengthy vary air protection for them and received distracted lengthy sufficient, with the goal AND poor climate as effectively, to have two Neptunes stick their tridents by the hull.
Thus, centered on the drone on the Ukrainian mainland, the Neptunes flew in underneath cowl of distraction and stormy seas to hit the ship. Another Russian report, posted a number of occasions by a number of credible OSINT individuals, reported an identical sequence of occasions (operating it by Google Translate):
In response to preliminary data, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet cruiser “Moscow” sank.
The official data of the Ministry of Protection of the Russian Federation, which appeared solely at 2 o’clock within the morning, states that on account of the fireplace there was a partial detonation of ammunition, and a part of the crew was evacuated.
In response to data from Ukraine, which appeared lengthy earlier than the assertion of the Russian Protection Ministry, the cruiser “Moscow” was destroyed by the RCC “Neptune”.
In response to our preliminary data, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the cruiser Moscow, was certainly attacked by the Neptune RCC from the shoreline between Odessa and Nikolaev. The ship’s forces had been additionally diverted to counter the Bayraktar TB-2 UAV. The blow hit the port aspect, on account of which the ship took a powerful roll. After the specter of detonation of ammunition, the crew of about ~ 500 individuals was evacuated. The buoyancy of the cruiser was difficult by marine climate circumstances. On account of all combination elements, in line with preliminary data, and sadly, the cruiser joined the underwater satellite tv for pc group “Roskomos”.
Roskomos is the Russian NASA. Another person can attempt to work out the reference, but it surely’s clearly some type of cultural slang. I used to be going to make a joke about how Russian ships can’t stroll and chew gum on the similar time, however apparently that’s really true. After some digging, seems that the Moskva may solely observe a single goal at a time. And for some loopy motive, there was no different anti-missile protection functionality on board. On their costly flagship!
Did we simply study that the Russian navy is as hole as its military?
What took so lengthy for Ukraine to deploy its Neptune anti-ship missiles? The Neptune mission was first introduced in 2015 and slated for deployment final yr. But none had appeared, whereas Ukraine requested NATO for anti-ship capabilities. Perhaps that they had by no means been delivered. Weapons methods famously endure from schedule delays.
Seems Ukraine did have them. But when Ukraine solely had a handful of those, their worth would’ve been immeasurable throughout a contested amphibious assault on Odesa. Higher to sink a touchdown ship with 1,000 naval infantry aboard than to battle them on land. With the specter of any assault on Odesa lengthy gone, and Russia’s navy now complacent, the Moskva—named after Russia’s capital—was an irresistible goal.
The missile has a recognized vary of 100 kilometers (62 mi), so it’d’ve simply been a query of ready for the proper alternative: For the ship to sail inside vary, for the climate to be proper, for the ship’s radar to “paint” the drone trying to distract it, and any variety of different intangibles we are able to’t even start to guess at. The rain and tough seas actually helped masks the missiles’ method and, simply as importantly, any rescue and salvage efforts.
This can be a army victory. Russia has simply misplaced an anti-aircraft radar and missile system that might see deep into Ukraine. Survivability of Ukrainian air property simply improved. It is usually a dramatic propaganda victory, yet one more blow to Russian satisfaction and morale, whereas dramatically rising the price of the battle for Russia.
And Russia can’t blame NATO for this assault! The missiles taking down the Moskva had been an all-Ukrainian manufacturing. Merely sensible.
In the meantime, Ukraine is taking a web page from its Belgorod assault and cheekily pretending it had nothing to do with it. Take a look at Oleksiy Arestovych, army advisor to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy:
“Who, us? It was most likely a few cigarettes!” Freakin’ sensible! Ukraine has actually mastered the artwork of gloating with out gloating. Oh, if solely we might be a fly within the wall as Vladimir Putin received the information!
Russian warship went and fucked itself.
