After I first wrote in regards to the city of Popasna on April 16, I had completely no concept that this was an vital navy stronghold for Ukraine, or that it will turn into the main target of Russian consideration for the next month. I stumbled throughout the city in a listing of areas, regarded it up the place everybody appears issues up—Wikipedia—and realized it had an attention-grabbing historical past. Popasna had been captured by Russian forces in 2014, recaptured by Ukrainian forces simply three months later, and stayed in Ukrainian fingers when a neighboring city, Pervomaisk, was captured a second time by pro-Russian separatists.
I then took the subsequent step, pulled these two cities up on Google Earth, and began taking a look at that small strip of land that separated them. Positive sufficient, what had clearly been unremarkable farmland eight years in the past, had since then been crisscrossed by trenches and dotted with bunkers. The pictures had been ok that you possibly can even see how the quick stretch of street separating Popasna and Pervomaisk was dotted by a sample of mines.
It was straightforward to think about a sure tragic romance round these locations. Absolutely there have been households who lived in Popasna after forsaking dad and mom or grandparents in Pervomaisk. There should have been sweethearts severed by the road working between these cities. Associates and enterprise companions may look out a window and see the place they used to satisfy for espresso on Tuesdays, or go to church on Sundays. Solely now that place was on the opposite facet of mines, trenches, and machine gun nests.
Since 2014, the inhabitants of Popasna, which had been 20,000 earlier than the primary Russian invasion, had declined. There have been solely a handful of functioning shops remaining within the city and an unknown, however a lot smaller, inhabitants when the second invasion started. Nevertheless, I had no concept how fortified the city had actually turn into, or what would occur once more, and once more, and once more over the next weeks as Russia and Ukraine engaged in what I cheekily named the Popasna Polka.
Due to the deep, closely fortified bunkers Ukraine had in-built and round Popasna, they may draw Russian forces into town, then assault them with artillery saved nicely again from the road. That tactic accounted for the repeating sample during which Russian forces introduced that they had entered Popasna, then introduced that that they had entered Popasna, then introduced that that they had entered Popasna.
However when Russian troops entered Popasna on Could 6, there have been few Ukrainain forces left to oppose them. You could possibly see this coming. For the higher a part of a month, Russia had 7 Battalion Tactical Teams concentrating their fireplace on Popasna. When Russia started withdrawing forces from Mariupol, lots of those who left the ruined metropolis got here to affix these different BTGS in battering this a lot smaller city.
On NASA’s FIRMS fireplace map, you possibly can watch Popasna being slowly decreased. At first Russia was firing throughout town. Then it was firing into the west and the north. The final two days earlier than Russia rolled in to Popasna in power, the entire artillery had been directed at only a few remaining blocks on the marginally greater floor on the north finish of the city. Stories from evacuees who escaped the city in its final days said that there was not a single constructing, anyplace within the city, nonetheless standing.
Although Chechen forces at the moment are engaged in utilizing Popasna for what appears to be their precept position within the conflict—making propaganda movies during which they chuckle over the concept of how merciless they are often to Ukrainians—indications are that every one however a handful of fighters left the ruins of the city on Friday night because the barrage of shells lastly compromised the final bunkers. Surviving Ukrainian forces withdrew to the north and the west of Popasna, to positions that native officers describe as “ready fallbacks.” Nevertheless, it is not clear the place these positions may be.
I had no concept after I began writing about it, however the motive Popasna was so vital was that, on this a part of the sphere, at the least, it held the southern flank. Having turned that flank, Russian forces now threaten forces alongside the road that runs towards Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, that are already being pressed from the north and east.
Perhaps Ukraine does have well-prepared fallback positions that can make Popasna, for all the trouble that Russia put into it, simply two miles of street gained at a very excessive worth. Perhaps the elevated presence of Western weapons on this a part of the battlefield will forestall Russia from having the ability to exploit this breakthrough. Perhaps Russia’s personal repeatedly demonstrated incompetence shall be sufficient.
There’s probably not any proof that Russia did something new at Popasna. It didn’t manage a big scale motion or a swift operation utilizing mixed arms. It simply pounded with artillery till there was nothing left to pound, which has been the Russian tactic going again by way of a long time.
However there are undoubtedly causes to be involved about what’s occurring on this space, issues that solely elevated on Sunday with Russia’s seize of the city of Nyzhnie, about 20 kilometers northeast of Popasna.
Kharkiv
If what’s taking place at Popasna is all unhappy information, what’s taking place north of Kharkiv is something however. Although there have undoubtedly been some reversals — Ukraine misplaced a number of autos in what appears to been ill-considered try and drive into first Kozacha Lopan then a few miles south close to Tsupivka—the whole lot else taking place within the space appears to be falling within the course of the oldsters waving blue and yellow flags.
Russian forces are reportedly digging in close to Kozacha Lopan, which is lower than 4km from the Russian border. The intention seems to be to guard the massive border crossing only a few kilometers to the east at Nekhoteevka. This crossing grew to become well-known early within the conflict as satellite tv for pc imagery confirmed Russian convoys passing by way of on their method to assault Kharkiv. Now Russia appears to be anxious to maintain Ukrainian forces again from the world simply in case they get a style for going the opposite course—the Russian base at Belgorod is simply 30km up the street. And actually, that needs to be tempting.
In any case, Nekhoteevka has principally misplaced its worth as a spot to deliver Russian materiel into Ukraine, as Ukraine now blocks each route coming from that crossing.
What continues to be most puzzling, and attention-grabbing, is what’s occurring alongside the western financial institution of the Siverskyi Donets River. Ukrainian forces raced into place at Staryi Saltiv final week, stunning observers — and the Russians. From there, they shelled the city of Rubiznhe to the north, the place a bridge crossed the river. Nevertheless, that bridge has now been blown, reportedly by Russian forces. Which makes the newest NASA FIRMS information very attention-grabbing.
Only for this map, I’ve added some fireplace icons to indicate areas the place NASA FIRMS information signifies sizzling spots on Could 6-7. Two of those are west of Staryi Saltiv, the place Ukraine seems to be working to clear cities alongside one other freeway and probably reduce off Russian forces who nonetheless seem like occupying the world round Petrivka.
However one other huge space of fireplace is now within the space east of Starytsya, nicely to the north of earlier exercise and fairly near the Russian border. What’s at Starytsya? Certainly one of two bridges throughout the Siverskyi Donets on this complete space of Ukraine nonetheless believed to be intact.
Simply because it did at Rubiznhe a number of days in the past, Ukraine seems to be pounding the world across the bridge. Additionally price noting, Ukraine now not appears to be hitting positions round Rubiznhe or the bridge to the east, each of which had been shelled earlier within the week.
Does this imply that Ukraine is racing up the west facet of the river, and is now closing on Starytsya? That’s utterly unknown.
What is obvious is that Russia’s principal web site for transferring males and tools into Ukraine at this level is lower than 10km east of Starytsya at Vovchansk. But when Ukraine needs to achieve Vovchansk quickly, they should take an intact bridge.
Izyum
What’s taking place at Izyum continues to be fast paced and complicated. As was mentioned on Friday, Ukraine appears to be working primarily within the space instantly northwest of town, the place a fancy community of roads offers entry that’s troublesome to chop off and forests present good cowl. Fires inside that forest make it troublesome to inform the place there are areas of contemporary firing, and simply areas of plain previous fireplace.
In any case, we are able to hope that is true.
