My conflict protection is anchored by one easy tenet: do not count on Russia to do one thing it has by no means confirmed in a position to accomplish. Some day, Russia may get its shit collectively, however in three months of conflict, betting towards Russia has at all times paid off.
We could quickly be capable of add the Popasna salient to that checklist of Russian failures. That breakthrough on the jap entrance was presupposed to collapse Ukrainian defenses within the space, resulting in the encirclement of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. Nearly two weeks later, Russia hasn’t been in a position to prolong greater than 15 kilometers from the city. Right here’s the final eight days of progress:
Ukraine withdrew its forces south of Popasna to keep away from encirclement, in order that chunk of pink appears good for Russia. However … that’s it. It’s been a number of days since Russia has even tried to maneuver. Ukraine Basic Employees says that “within the Bakhmut route, russian [sic] occupiers are regrouping for an extra offensive.” That was the identical language used when Russia was caught round Kyiv, and the identical language when Russia bought caught round Izyum. “Regrouping for an extra offensive.”
Certain, Russia could ultimately get their shit collectively and at last show me incorrect, however I simply don’t see how Russia pushes previous that 15 km ring round Popasna. Keep in mind, the additional out they push, the longer the provision strains get, and the much less safety these vanguard forces get from its artillery. The vary of a Russian howitzer? 16 kilometers. It’s no coincidence that Russia’s offensive has stalled on the fringe of its artillery vary. Russian troops can solely advance when artillery flattens defenses. And if that artillery is moved up nearer to the entrance line, it makes it simpler for Ukraine’s longer-range artillery and drones to search out and destroy them. Ergo, they get caught.
So let’s return to this sensible Reddit meme:
This meme was posted the primary few days of Could, when Russia actually thought it may push from the Izyum salient right down to Horlivka space in a single huge, hundreds-of-kilometers-long sweep. The joke was that “by June, their targets will shrunk even additional.” Factor is, it’s nonetheless Could, and people June arrows are already out of date. Russia has been unable to cross the Donets River close to Lyman and Lysychansk, for the northern prong, and the southern prong at Popasna is lifeless within the water. So what’s left?
Russia’s mighty military, the second-best in their very own estimation, failed to overcome Kyiv, failed to overcome Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regardless of being on their border. They failed their broad encirclement of all the Donbas area, a smaller encirclement of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, and the smallest encirclement of Lysychanks and Severodonetsk. What’s left is a direct assault on Severodonetsk towards a resupplied and strengthened Ukrainian garrison. Previous few days I’ve questioned the knowledge in defending the town right here, right here, and right here. However Ukrainian Basic Employees seemingly shares my underlying philosophy—do not count on Russia to do one thing it has by no means confirmed in a position to accomplish. As of now, Russia has taken solely two massive cities—Kherson by way of bribe and treason, and Mariupol after 2 ½ months of siege, minimize off from all resupply. There’s a rational motive to consider Russia will battle at Severodonetsk.
In the meantime, the Ukrainian counter-offensive within the southern Kherson entrance is selecting up steam. Basic Employees introduced that Russian troops have withdrawn from Mykolaivka after struggling “important losses.” That metropolis lies south of Kryvyi Rih on the administrative border of Kherson (the top-right arrow on this map beneath).
You may see the dashed define of Kherson Oblast’s administrative borders on the map. I spent a number of months mocking what seemed to be an under-resourced try to succeed in Kryvyi Rih, however in hindsight, it’s now apparent that Russia was solely desirous about claiming full management of Kherson’s borders, aiming to annex it into Russia correct.
The center arrow is the assault round Davydiv Brid, the place Ukraine seems to have superior round 9 kilometers south. This center prong threatens provide strains for these Russian troops in north Kherson oblast, additional pressuring them to fall again.
Lastly, there’s combating in Snihurivka, the bottom-left arrow on the map above. Snihurivka was briefly in Ukrainian fingers after its first counter-offensive within the conflict again on March 17. You may recall, Russia was attempting to get to Odesa, however Mykolaiv was an impenetrable fortress, so Russian forces labored their approach up the Southern Bug river, attempting to route round it.
A logical particular person may suppose, “If Russia couldn’t take Mykolaiv, a metropolis of 500,000, what made them suppose they may take Odesa, a metropolis of 1 million, however with just a few further hundred kilometers of provide strains?” Seems, Russia couldn’t even get previous the city of Voznesensk, inhabitants 34,000, the place territorial protection forces and farmers shredded elite Russian airborne forces.
After Voznesensk, Ukrainian forces pushed Russia again 120 kilometers (75 miles), the primary time Ukraine proved it may retake misplaced territory. Ukrainian forces bought so far as Posad-Pokrovsikote and Snihurivka, till overwhelming Russian artillery halted the advance. Quickly after, Russia retook Snihurivka in its push to safe the Kherson administrative borders. Again in March, Ukraine merely didn’t have the artillery sources it has as we speak, and so was unable to press its benefit.
The territory on this area is flat and open, with little cowl for advancing forces. This video exhibits what a typical engagement appears like, with Ukrainian artillery destroying a Russian car making an attempt to run the gauntlet.
2 hundred American-donated M113s at present on a ship en route from the USA will show massively invaluable in advancing amidst these artillery barrages. In reality, the model new Ukrainian tank brigade seemingly a part of this offensive boasts 70 Dutch M113 variants (together with 100 Polish-donated T-72s). No armored car will survive a direct artillery hit, however these are uncommon with out guided artillery shells (of which Russia has none). The secret’s to guard from flying shrapnel, which these autos do.
The state of affairs at Snihurivka is unclear, with some Ukrainian social media sources claiming it’s been re-liberated, whereas Russian ones admit solely to ongoing fight. I’d guess the latter till we get official affirmation or photographic proof on the contrary.
If Ukraine can break by these defensive strains, it’s a 50 kilometer dash right down to Beryslav and Kozatske, simply throughout the river from Nova Kakhovka, the primary supply of water for all the Crimean peninsula. Kozatske is a reported location for a type of Nazi-esque “filtration camps” holding ~4,000 males from Mariupol. This pocket has immense worth for Ukraine, each politically and strategically.
Wishing you all a reflective Memorial Day.
Folks had interpreted the Biden assertion as “no MLRS for Ukraine.” Appeared clear that he meant no ATACMS missiles, which could possibly be launched from MLRS/HIMARS launchers and have a spread of almost 200 miles. America has already given Ukraine weapons that may attain Russia. The 2 international locations border one another. A hand grenade can attain Russia.
I used to be incorrect about Russia not having precision-guided artillery shells:
Once more, reinforces the problem of anybody to advance in this sort of open terrain with so little cowl.
First video out of newly liberated Davydov Brod. These usually are not the Dutch M113 variants, so this isn’t the brand new Ukrainian armored brigade, at the least not on this prong of the Kherson counteroffensive.
Nice thread. Appears like there’s been two generations of M270s since I labored with them 1989-1992. Right here’s hoping they discovered the upkeep points since these occasions. As a result of as that thread exhibits, their vary is kind of superb.
Cool video.
In most armies, the project of fireplace missions is unit-based. So if the first subject artillery regiment has a drone or spotter, it sends the coordinates to its personal weapons. Ukraine has provide you with a much more ingenious answer—an Uber-like app that punches within the coordinates, and the app figures out the weapons finest positioned to take the fireplace mission. So if the that 1st FA regiment drone spots a goal, the third FA regiment could be higher positioned for the fireplace mission and acts accordingly.
South of Izyum:
Who is aware of if the claims within the tweet are true. However I’m including this for the battle-scarred view of the terrain. The quantity of explosive tonnage dropped on these fields is past comprehension. Farmers might be harvesting shrapnel for generations.
By the way, that is in Dovhenke, which we examine just lately, the Russian volunteer who wrote extensively about his horrible expertise attempting to seize this city.
