Yesterday I questioned why Ukraine was so hell-bent on defending Severodonetsk, remoted on a deep salient surrounded on three sides and no pure limitations, when these forces might merely cross the river and maintain out in a way more defensible Lysychansk. Retired Australian common Mick Ryan contemplated the identical immediately, noting that “the tactical and political necessity to carry out in Severodonetsk is questionable.”
Russia’s current successes on the japanese Donbas entrance are, largely, attributed to their brief provide traces. Russia runs into issues when these traces are stretched. That wall of artillery they’ve rained on Ukrainian defensive positions? That will get rather a lot more durable when you must truck ammunition to these thirsty artillery batteries kilometers from the railheads that feed the Russian military. Similar with gas.
Dropping Popasna to the Russians wasn’t nice, clearly, however their push from that new salient has already slowed to a crawl. And whereas Russia is gaining a few kilometer a day from the Popasna course (not an exaggeration), a tactical native Ukrainian counterattack recaptured some floor—the city of Komyshuvakha immediately north of Popasna:
This doesn’t imply Russia isn’t advancing, it doesn’t imply they may not retake Komyshuvakha tomorrow, it simply signifies that advancing is tough, the combating is fierce, and Russia nonetheless struggles to increase from its predominant provide depots. That’s why Ukraine’s insistence on defending Severodonetsk is so perplexing, no matter how nicely they suppose they’ll defend it. As I maintain stating, even when Russia takes town and its neighbor Lysychansk, Ukraine has the dual stronghold cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in the way in which of any additional Russian advances, each much more defensible by Ukrainian artillery.
Russia’s technique is to take all the Donbas area, Ukraine’s is to bide time for western weapons (like MLRS/HIMARS) to reach and its reserves to spin up. Like that new Ukrainian tank brigade just lately activated close to Kryvyi Rih, cobbled collectively from reservists, Polish tanks, and Dutch armored personnel carriers.
Ukraine simply declared the brigade totally activated this week, and we’ve been questioning the place it would present up. We all know Ukraine has been reinforcing the Donbas entrance, so the was a logical vacation spot. However this bit of unusual information means that they could have their sights set on Kherson within the south.
Igor Girkin was accountable for Russian-backed separatists within the Donbas in the course of the 2014 battle, and is a rabid Russian nationalist (Mark wrote extra about him right here). He stays nicely linked to Russian and separatist navy sources. And what he’s saying in that tweet is that there was a tank breakthrough close to the village of Davydiv Brid. (Ukrainian presidential advisor Aleksey Arestovych individually confirmed a counter-offensive within the space.) If Girkin is correct, we’re speaking right here, the place the pink marker is:
This city is immediately within the heart of probably the most direct provide traces from Nova Kahkovka additional south to Russian troops which were reaching towards Kryvyi Rih (although observing them over time, they appear extra taken with merely reaching the executive borders of Kherson Oblast, which Russia is attempting to annex).
Russian telegram accounts declare 10-15 Ukrainian tanks made a river crossing into Davydiv Brid, then pushed south down that freeway to the village of Bruskynske, the place combating is ongoing.
If these accounts are correct, it’s not a very giant assault—concerning the measurement of a Russian BTG (and we’ve spent all battle mocking Russia’s under-resourced BTG-sized piecemeal assaults). Ukraine’s model new tank brigade has 100 tanks, plus one other 70 or so armored personnel carriers, so there’s much more fight energy someplace. This is likely to be a small blocking motion, designed to merely reduce off provide traces to Russian forces to the north. However, if we are able to dream, Nova Kahkovka could be a fair juicer goal than Kherson itself.
Nova Kahkovka is the supply of water for all of Crimea, posing a significant downside for Russia if it have been reduce off once more (prefer it was pre-war). Simply threatening the city ought to require Russia reinforce it, “fixing” Russian troops desperately wanted for Kherson’s protection and the offensives out east. Ukraine’s management of Crimea’s water provide could be a large bargaining chip in any future negotiations. And relying on whether or not bridges survived any motion, Ukraine would have a western method to Melitopol—the logistical hub for provides coming from Crimea to Russian forces in southeastern Ukraine. It might be bye-bye “land bridge,” connecting Crimea to mainland Russia.
This effort is analogous to Ukrainian counter-offensives round Kharkiv within the north, which have put strain on Russia’s provide traces to the Izyum salient. Consequently, Russia has been compelled to peel away forces from Izyum to strengthen their logistical hubs and arrest additional Ukrainian good points towards the Russian border.
By all indications, the southern axis is Russia’s least-resourced. If Ukraine will get traction, Russia might want to divert critically wanted items from the Donbas combat, and that, by itself, could be a significant win.
