Zandon’s Fight To Beat Epicenter, And Bets You Should Make

Because the 2022 Kentucky Derby’s submit time attracts towards us, it brings an inexorable focus to the larger questions of the handfuls that swirl across the athletes of this wealthy $3- million 148th operating of the race on Could 7. That’s to not say that our oft-overheated touts will convey us any nearer to the solutions to these questions, however we’ll positively be handled to reams of study down on the nano-particle degree. By far this Derby’s greatest and definitely most uncommon query is whether or not the extraordinarily lightly-raced Zandon can keep the course, cope with the immense pressures of the race and reside as much as his (morning line) favourite standing to land within the winner’s circle.

On the books, that’s a tall order. Epicenter, beloved by pundits far and huge earlier than Mr. Mike Battaglia, Churchill’s esteemed oddsmaker, flipped Epicenter right down to 7-2, crowning Zandon (3-1) with the highest spot within the morning line on Could 2, simply hasn’t appeared as spectacular on the upkeep rounds at Churchill. As well, he’s drawn a horrible inside submit place, three from Churchill’s race-killing rail. Zandon’s elevation early this week to the favored low man within the odds is an admirably extra subjective form of gamble by Mr. Battaglia. The garland relies on coaching, and one admittedly massive race, the Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 9, when Zandon bested fellow Derby contender Smile Blissful, whom Mr. Battaglia ratcheted down fairly far at 20-1 within the morning line.

Put one other manner, Mr. Battaglia’s estimate of the Zandon is a dispatch on how he appears now, at Churchill, and it greater than barely reductions Zandon’s — at finest, uneven — three profession begins. In reality, because the world is aware of and Epicenter’s connections won’t allow us to overlook, Epicenter and Smile Blissful raked Zandon over the coals within the Risen Star down in Louisiana in mid-February, by which Zandon ran third.

To assist us unlock these and different mysteries of Kentucky Derby 148, we’ll name upon our trusted advisor and Kentucky-bred horseman, the Bluegrass Smart Man ™, who has been so beneficiant together with his evaluation in Triple Crown seasons previous. Full disclaimer: The Smart Man, an proprietor, has no horses operating on this yr’s Derby, however he will probably be energetically betting the race.

First, an odds refresher, together with reside monitor odds because the Oaks-day betting home windows have begun transferring the morning line:

Publish Place, Horse, Coach, Jockey, (Morning Line), Dwell Odds

1. Mo Donegal, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., (10-1), 8-1

2. Blissful Jack, Doug O’Neill, Rafael Bejarano, (30-1), 21-1

3. Epicenter, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, (7-2), 5-1

4. Summer time Is Tomorrow, Bhupat Seemar, Mickael Barzalona, (30-1), 42-1

5. Smile Blissful, Kenny McPeek, Corey Lanerie, (20-1), 14-1

6. Messier, Tim Yakteen, John Velazquez, (8-1), 7-1

7. Crown Satisfaction, Koichi Shintani, Christophe Lemaire, (20-1), 17-1

8. Cost It, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, (20-1), 13-1

9. Tiz the Bomb, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., (30-1), 25-1

10. Zandon, Chad Brown, Flavien Prat, (3-1), 8-1

11. Pioneer of Medina, Todd Pletcher, Joe Bravo, (30-1), 47-1

12. Taiba, Tim Yakteen, Mike Smith, (12-1), 5-1

13. Simplification, Antonio Sano, Jose Ortiz, (20-1), 40-1

14. Barber Street, John Ortiz, Reylu Gutierrez, (30-1), 40-1

15. White Abarrio, Saffie Joseph Jr., Tyler Gaffalione, (10-1), 11-1

16. Cyberknife, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, (20-1), 14-1

17. Basic Causeway, Brian Lynch, Julien Leparoux, (30-1), 67-1

18. Tawny Port, Brad Cox, Ricardo Santana Jr., (30-1), 67-1

19. Zozos, Brad Cox, Manny Franco, (20-1), 39-1

20. Ethereal Street, D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Contreras, 30-1, SCRATCH

21. Wealthy Strike, Eric Reed, Sonny Leon, (99-1), 99-1

(Supply: Churchill Downs, Could 6, 2022)

With no additional ado, right here’s the Bluegrass Smart Man ™.

So, why Zandon? Is it actually the latest coaching, or extra of a sum of all issues?

Bluegrass Smart Man ™: Couple of issues. Mike Battaglia likes Zandon’s race within the Bluegrass at Keeneland. It was spectacular and his exercises at Churchill for the reason that Bluegrass have been spectacular. He’s a growing colt. Gentle on his toes, nice mover. That stated, it’s a coin flip actually between Zandon and Epicenter, and on that scale, Zandon will get the nod from Battaglia due to his submit place. No one breaking from the three gap has received the Derby since Actual Quiet in 1998. Tall order for Mr. Epicenter.

Enlighten us please on Messier. He’s lurking again there and appears able to spoil.

Bluegrass Smart Man ™: Messier appears like an enormous colt. He has been within the Bob Baffert program. He has tactical pace so he can put himself within the race. He has a superb submit. He could also be close to the entrance. The pedigree says he can get the space. Large shot. No query. Is he ok? His 15 size win two begins again got here in opposition to a colt who has received twice and each on the turf.

Let’s return to Epicenter. Is the three gap actually and really that unhealthy? Give us an image of what he has to do to get previous his submit place.

Bluegrass Smart Man ™: Unsure his draw is horrible. The brand new 20-stall gate may very well assist. Within the previous two-section gate, the within horses needed to make a form of ungainly half-right prove of the stall so as to not bounce off the rail. Nonetheless can’t imagine that was they manner it labored, however it did. As well as, Epicenter’s good from the gate. If he will get out rapidly and cleanly — sure, it’s nonetheless an enormous if — but when he does, he has a brief manner round. He’s additionally bought good tactical pace, and I believe he can put himself the place he needs to be within the race. However there’s quite a bit on the market on Churchill’s monitor that he has to do in that race apart from get comfy. He’s gonna must convey a run.

How do you work Mo Donegal? Is he as his coach suggests really “locomotive” whose energy can face up to the rail?

Bluegrass Smart Man ™: Identical with Mo Donegal as with Epicenter. The submit issues, however can, additionally, not matter. Once more, they don’t have that previous gate and don’t have to leap on the market and make a proper flip. Mo Donegal doesn’t run close to the entrance. He’ll go to the again, possible run alongside the within some, after which must make his journey. Usually, he has an enormous run, a “flip of foot” down the lane. That’s possible what he must do. However that is the Derby, and site visitors is at all times the difficulty for these horses. Mo’s gonna must be affected person after which let it go. In reality, his model is extra of a priority than the submit. He would possibly really need some actual pace in entrance of him to maintain him up there. He’ll possible get that, because it’s the Derby and someone’s positively gonna go and set foolish fractions.

Taiba’s extreme lack of expertise? Primarily based on Santa Anita, give us the tackle that horse’s potential to cope with an actual Derby.

Bluegrass Smart Man ™: Most likely ok, however I’ll go together with historical past on Taiba. Everyone knows the stats about having solely two begins coming into the Derby, they usually’re not good. Now, once more, the Bob Baffert program. Gained the Santa Anita Derby however a really small subject. Don’t actually like the truth that he didn’t have a exercise till 19 days for the reason that Santa Anita Derby, however he possible had loads of sturdy gallops main up the exercise. The six-furlong exercise was very strong. Horse is match, however simply unsure he’s going to have the ability to get on the market. He’s bought a lot on his plate. Expertise does rely.